The performance of the Hong Kong stock market was sluggish in 2022, with the Hang Seng Index falling by about 35%, including$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$、$Meituan-W (03690.HK)$Among them, many Hong Kong stocks have fallen sharply.

However, with the deep adjustment of the market, many enterprises have launched plans one after another, opening a buyback storm. At the same time, southward funds have not been idle, and the whole is in the state of inflow to the bottom.

Buyback enterprises, the amount of money set a record, Tencent led the buyback army

October twenty _ fourth$AIA (01299.HK)$、$GREATWALL MOTOR (02333.HK)$及$WANT WANT CHINA (00151.HK)$Wait for a number of Hong Kong stock companies to issue buyback announcements.

For example, Great Wall Motor's announcement shows that the company spent about HK $359 million on October 24, 2022 to buy back 46.179 million shares at a repurchase price of HK $7.67-HK $7.81 per share.

It is reported that this is Great Wall Motor's 19th repurchase in the Hong Kong stock market since 2022.The total amount of buybacks this year has reached27.81HK $100 million.

AIA Group Limited spent about HK $178 million on October 24 to buy back 2.8982 million shares at a price of HK $59.50-HK $65.15 per share.Since the beginning of the year, it has accumulated buybacks.198.62HK $100 million.

It is worth mentioning that in March this year, the company said it expected to buy back common shares through the open market in the next three years.Return of capital to shareholders100One billion US dollars.

In fact, these buyback companies are not alone.

According to Wind data, as of October 24th, 2022,The total number of Hong Kong stock markets215Companies carried out buybacks with a total repurchase amount of 768.42HK $100 million.

It is understood thatThis year, the number of companies involved in buybacks and the total number of buybacks have set a new record.

Judging from the total repurchase amount of a single company, the first Tencent is in the leading position of being out of gear.So far, the company has been working in2022The annual repurchase is 7649.44.Ten thousand shares, with a total repurchase amount of 244.89.HK $100 million.

However, Tencent's share price (former reinstatement right) has experienced a sharp fall since it reached its listing peak of HK $749.55 per share on February 18, 2021.Of which only in2022It has fallen by nearly 53% since the beginning of the year.。

The whole is basically in a state that has been falling and buyback has been falling.

The total amount of buybacks is closely followed by AIA Group Limited, who has repurchased a total of HK $19.862 billion.

With the exception of the company in the past two years, the cumulative repurchase amount of other enterprises is less than HK $10 billion, of which more than HK $1 billion are HSBC Holdings PLC, Wuxi Biologics, Great Wall Motor, XIAOMI Group-W, CK Asset, Swire AG A, China Gas and JD Health.

The more you fall, the more you buy? Southward capital inflows exceeded 3000 during the year.HK $100 million

In fact, the "bottom" is not only the Hong Kong stock market companies, southward funds will also buy a lot in 2022.

Since October, the daily net purchases of southbound funds have all been positive, with a net purchase of HK $6.691 billion on October 24, according to Wind data.

And ifSince the beginning of the year，The total net inflow of southbound funds exceeds3000HK $100 million.

However, it is important to note thatThese southward inflows of funds to buy the company's shares are relatively concentrated.It mainly includes Tencent, Kuaishou Technology-W, China Mobile Limited, CNOOC Limited, Wuxi Biologics, Byd Company Limited, Meituan-W, Geely Automobile, Li Ning Co. Ltd., Li Auto Inc.-W and so on.

Thus it can be seen that these southward funds are basically star stocks in the Hong Kong stock market, but the stock prices of these star stocks have been very weak in the past two years, and southward funds have fallen more and more.

Two years ago, some domestic investors shouted the slogan "cross Hong Kong and seize the pricing power." I don't know if I got the pricing power, but at least the first half of the sentence has been realized.

How do institutions view the future of Hong Kong stocks?

It is worth noting that as the market continues to weakenAt present, the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is already relatively cheap.As the chart below shows, the Hang Seng Index PE (TTM) has reached a nearly 10-year low.

Low valuation superimposed southbound capital inflows, buybacks and other good news, how about the future of the Hong Kong stock market?

In this regard, some research institutions also give their own views.

China International Capital Corporation released a report on October 24, saying that the current capital situation of Hong Kong stocks reflects the "triple pressure" facing the market, that is, the Fed tightening affects liquidity, domestic growth affects profit expectations, and the geographical situation affects risk appetite.

In the short term, the Fed may maintain a hawkish stance under high inflationary pressures, which means that global risk aversion may continue in the short term, while the current situation of large underallocation of Hong Kong stocks by foreign active institutions may need to find a turning point in the latter two.

Fortunately, the Hong Kong stock market already has several advantages, such as the current market has fallen to a multi-year low, valuations are already at an all-time low, and the continued inflow of southward capital under domestic easing. This means that overseas Chinese stocks are likely to show greater resilience. If the internal and external environment improves, the future rebound of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to be even greater.

Looking ahead, the Fed's policy at the end of the year could be the first opportunity to ease the pressure if it can go downhill. The subsequent emergence of more positive catalysts, such as the increase of large-scale stable growth policies and the mitigation of some risks, may promote the mitigation of low allocation of foreign institutions and the repricing of market risks.

Based on the above judgment, CICC believes that Hong Kong stocks may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, but may be at the bottom. In the idea of configurationIn the short term, high dividends are used as a hedge against devaluation and risk, but high-quality growth, especially consumption growth that may benefit from future domestic demand and policy relaxation and repair, can be absorbed and waited for the opportunity.

Xingsheng International analysts believe that in the past week, the average daily net inflow of southbound funds is about HK $5 billion, with obvious entry of incremental funds. This means that after the adjustment, ultra-low valuations in the Hong Kong stock market become more attractive to capital.

Guotai Junan analysts pointed out that Hong Kong stocks will face capital outflow pressure in the short term, but the recent HKEx New deal announced a reduction of stamp duty and will promote RMB-denominated investment tools, which is expected to stimulate southward capital inflows, but the reversal of the market still needs continuous support from social finance, PMI and other data.

At this stage, it is proposed to useHigh dividend strategyIt is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to it.Energy, transport, telecommunications services, banking, public utilitiesWait for the plate. If the Fed sends dovish signals in the future, and there is more support for domestic economic stability policies, there may be more structural opportunities.