据悉，在1980年，美国通胀率达13.5%的背景下，现货白银价格创下了49.45美元/盎司的历史新高。Silver is likely to outperform gold this year, hitting a nine-year high of $30 an ounce, up 20%.
Janie Simpson, CEO of ABC Bullion, Australia's largest independent precious metal products trader, said in a recent interview with the mediaThe insufficient supply of silver and its performance better than gold in times of high inflation are the key factors driving up the price of silver.. Simpson said:
Historically,When inflation is high, the annual growth rate of silver is close to 20%.. At the same time, we are considering that silver is now low relative to gold, and it is reasonable for silver to rise to $30 an ounce this year.
It is reported that in 1980, against the backdrop of 13.5% inflation in the United States, the spot silver price reached an all-time high of 49.45 US dollars per ounce.
Since October last year, spot silver has entered the upward channel. On January 20th, silver continued its rally to $23.93 an ounce.
Silver "supply falls short of demand" may aggravate
Nicky Shiels, director of metal strategy at precious metals company MKS PAMP, saidThere is now a shortage of silver, with a significant decrease in silver inventories in spot silver exchange centers in New York and London, which is even more pronounced than the decline in gold stocks.
As a material commonly used in automobile manufacturing, solar panels, jewelry and electronic products, the demand for silver may further increase with the prospect of economic recovery in various countries.
Shiels thinksThe demand for silver is expected to grow by more than 15% in the next five years, and there will be a shortage of more than 100 million ounces of silver.:
With the prospect of economic recovery in various countries, industrial demand will further aggravate the tight supply of silver, mainly depending on the industrial demand for automotive and electronic applications.
The biggest demand for silver is industry, accounting for nearly 50% of the total demand for silver.
Shiels believes that based on this situation,It is conservatively estimated that the price of silver will climb to 28 US dollars per ounce in 2023, while it is optimistically estimated that the price of silver will climb more than 30 US dollars per ounce..
As mentioned earlier on Wall Street, Philip Newman, an analyst at consulting firm Metals Focus, saidHe expects demand in industries such as photovoltaic cells and automobile manufacturing to remain strong, and silver supply shortages will be more frequent in the coming years..
Randy Smallwood, president of precious metal mining company Wheaton Precious Metals, said that worldwide silver production has been declining:
About five or six years ago, we reached the peak of silver supply, and since then, global silver production has actually been declining, and it is impossible to produce that much silver in mines.
According to The Silver Institute, a trade group, the supply of silver produced in mines in 2022 was 843.2 million ounces, down from a peak of 900 million ounces in 2016.
Smallwood said that when silver prices rise, silver mines are unlikely to increase production, and silver supply usually does not respond quickly to a surge in demand:
Because silver mines supply only about 25% of silver, the market tends to rely on lead-zinc mines to meet higher demand.
Smallwood believes that although it is normal for silver to hit $30 an ounce in 2023, he thinksThe price will not last, and the more appropriate range for silver is between $20 and $30 an ounce.
Joe Foster and Imaru Casanova, portfolio managers and strategists at securities firm VanEck, saidContinued weakness in the US dollar in 2023 will boost the price of precious metals this year, with gold expected to rise to $2200 / oz and silver to $30 / oz.:
In the event of a recession, we expect the dollar to weaken further, which is good for commodities.
