It is a pleasure to report that the China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited (HKG:6055) is up 58% in the last quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. After all, the share price is down 17% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.

While the stock has risen 5.9% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

Check out our latest analysis for China Tobacco International (HK)

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, China Tobacco International (HK) actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.3% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

With a rather small yield of just 1.3% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Tobacco International (HK) the TSR over the last 3 years was -14%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

The last twelve months weren't great for China Tobacco International (HK) shares, which performed worse than the market, costing holders 13%, including dividends. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 5.7%, likely weighing on the stock. Shareholders have lost 5% per year over the last three years, so the share price drop has become steeper, over the last year; a potential symptom of as yet unsolved challenges. Although Baron Rothschild famously said to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", he also focusses on high quality stocks with solid prospects. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for China Tobacco International (HK) you should be aware of.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.