Just bought it and sold for nearly 300 million! Major international banks also love to keep up the heat; these individual stocks are often “patronized”

券商中國 · Mar 20, 2023 21:14

来源：券商中国

一周前还在增持，一周后却在减持，国际大行也玩起了短线操作？

港交所数据显示，3月15日，摩根大通减持约195万股$哔哩哔哩-W (09626.HK)$，按平均减持股价170.5076港元计算，减持金额约3.33亿港元(约合2.9亿元人民币)；而在一周前的3月6日，摩根大通刚刚增持哔哩哔哩-W约381.22万股，持股比例升至9.4%。

3月以来，摩根大通已经两次增持、一次减持哔哩哔哩-W，从第一次增持的3月3日至减持的3月15日，哔哩哔哩-W的股价上涨了约10.25%，摩根大通做了一把小幅度的高抛低吸。

哔哩哔哩-W并不是摩根大通第一只短线操作的票，自去年11月以来，摩根大通开始在港股市场“扫货”，加仓了哔哩哔哩、$中国平安 (02318.HK)$、$万科企业 (02202.HK)$等超20只个股，此后便频繁进行起了短线操作。

摩根大通减持约3.33亿港元哔哩哔哩

据港交所数据，3月15日，摩根大通减持约195万股哔哩哔哩-W，按平均减持股价170.5076港元计算，减持金额约3.33亿港元，持股比例由此前9.4%降至8.89%。

在此之前，摩根大通发表研究报告指出，将哔哩哔哩-W的目标价削减由310港元至210港元，以反映由于成本控制措施后日均用户增长预测放缓，2025年目标市盈率较低；管理层决定削减部分低利润业务线后，料2025年的收入较低；维持集团增持评级，因预期广告及游戏业务有上升空间。

该行认为，其股价主要驱动因素已由用户增长转向盈利能力，其股价从1月初的高峰下跌31%，反映投资者对其今年收入及盈利增长前景感到忧虑。该行估计2024年经调整净利润为2.33亿元，而市场普遍预期净亏损11亿元；预期集团第二及第三季的收入按年增长将恢复至13%及11%，这是受惠于广告需求的进一步复苏以及新游戏于第二季推出。

股价方面，哔哩哔哩-W在去年10月31日触底至66.1港元/股，此后大幅反弹，在今年1月6日一度触及228港元/股的阶段高点，区间涨幅约220%。随后，哔哩哔哩-W再度回调，截至3月20日报收169.3港元/股，已经从1月份的高点下跌了超20%，区间最大回撤达31%。

消息面上，3月初，哔哩哔哩-W发布2022年财报，公司在2022年实现营收219亿元，较2021年增长约13%，净亏损为75亿元人民币，较2021年68亿元扩大约10%。此外，财报还显示，2022年B站的营业成本高达180亿元，同比增长18%，B站表示主要由于收入分成及内容成本增加所致，其中，收入分成主要是在直播和广告业务中给Up主的激励/分成，达到91亿元人民币，同样增长18%。

对哔哩哔哩进行多次高抛低吸

得注意的是，从去年11月以来，摩根大通在哔哩哔哩-W上的短线操作十分频繁，进行了多次高抛低吸。

例如，在此次减持前的3月3日，哔哩哔哩-W刚刚获得摩根大通以每股均价167.5752港元增持147.21万股，持股比例升至8.25%，3月6日，摩根大通再度增持381.22万股，持股比例升至9.4%。从3月3日至3月15日，哔哩哔哩-W的股价上涨了约10.25%。

再比如，2022年11月4日，摩根大通以84.23港元的均价买入21.98万股哔哩哔哩-W，持仓11天后，摩根大通又以113.59港元的价格卖出134.79万股哔哩哔哩-W，期间哔哩哔哩-SW的股价上涨了超60%。

2022年11月30日，摩根大通以每股120.9807港元的均价买入哔哩哔哩-W120.9万股H股，持股比例从10.79%增加到11.17%，但随后便进行了多次减持，至1月20日时的持股比例已经降至7.86%，期间哔哩哔哩-SW的股价上涨了约85%。

彼时，摩根大通发表报告，预期哔哩哔哩-W去年第四季业绩大致符合预期，收入料按年增长4%至60亿元人民币；线上游戏收入则估计按年倒退10%至12亿元人民币，主要由于缺乏新游戏推出，及《时空猎人》的按季收入下跌。该行对集团今年的前景保持正面，预期广告需求的收入将由第二季开始开始恢复；游戏方面，预期《赛马娘》或于今年内获得进口游戏许可证，摩通维持哔哩哔哩股份“增持”评级及目标价310港元。

国际大行也频繁短线操作

短时间大量增持，又在不久后迅速卖出，这一现象不仅发生在摩根大通对哔哩哔哩-W的操作上，哔哩哔哩-W也并不是摩根大通第一只短线操作的票。

例如，3月13日，万科企业H股遭摩根大通以每股均价12.4789港元减持好仓3873.344万股，涉资约4.83亿港元，减持后，JPMorgan Chase & Co.最新持好仓数目约为16311万股，持好仓比例由9.14%下降至7.39%。

3月1日，摩根大通刚刚增持了万科企业H股，彼时其对于万科企业H股的增持股比例由7.28%增加至9.18%，此后3月3日，摩根大通再度增持万科企业H股，持股比例由9.69%增加至11.06%。

不过，这一次的短线操作并没有给摩根大通带来正收益，3月1日至3月13日期间，万科企业H股的股价一直处于下跌趋势，区间跌幅超8.7%。

再比如，2月22日晚间，根据港交所数据显示，摩根大通在2月16日减持港股$招商银行 (03968.HK)$约2602万股，每股平均价为44.9101港元，总金额约为11.69亿港元，而就在头一天，摩根大通刚刚增持了1000多万股招商银行。

这一短线交易从去年底开始显露出来，当时，摩根大通从去年11月开始在港股市场“扫货”，加仓了哔哩哔哩、中国平安等超20只个股，其中，仅2022年11月11日~11月14日之间，摩根大通在港股市场买入股票的金额就达到15亿港元左右。

以中国平安为例，2022年11月4日，摩根大通以34.35港元的均价增持中国平安H股831.26万股，持仓仅4天后，11月8日，摩根大通又以36.36港元的均价卖出587.71万股；三天后，摩根大通再次以38.46港元的价格买入2241.83万股，又在持仓仅6天后以43.18港元的价格卖出391.47万股。粗略计算，摩根大通在中国平安频繁买入卖出的短线操作已浮盈超3亿港元。

编辑/new

Source: Broker China

Their holdings were still increasing a week ago, but they were losing their holdings a week later. Are major international banks also playing around with short-term operations?

According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange data, on March 15, J.P. Morgan reduced its holdings by about 1.95 million shares$BILIBILI-W (09626.HK)$Based on the average reduction in stock holdings of HK$170.5076, the holdings reduction amount was approximately HK$333 million (approximately RMB 290 million); however, a week ago, on March 6, J.P. Morgan Chase had just increased its Bilibili-W holdings by about 3.812,200 shares, and the shareholding ratio rose to 9.4%.

Since March, J.P. Morgan has increased its holdings twice and reduced its BiliBili-W holdings once. From March 3, when it first increased its holdings to March 15, when its holdings were reduced, BiliBili-W's stock price rose by about 10.25%, and J.P. Morgan took a slight sell-off.

Bilibili-W is not J.P. Morgan's first short-term ticket. Since November of last year, J.P. Morgan has begun “sweeping goods” in the Hong Kong stock market, adding Bilibili to its stock market,$PING AN (02318.HK)$,$CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$After waiting for more than 20 stocks, short-term operations have been carried out frequently since then.

J.P. Morgan reduced its holdings by about HK$333 million

According to data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on March 15, J.P. Morgan reduced its holdings of Bilibili-W by about 1.95 million shares. Based on the average reduced share price of HK$170.5076, the reduction amount was approximately HK$333 million. The shareholding ratio fell to 8.89% from the previous 9.4%.

Prior to that, J.P. Morgan Chase published a research report stating that the target price of Bilibili-W will be reduced from HK$310 to HK$210 to reflect the low target price-earnings ratio for 2025 due to the slowdown in the average daily user growth forecast after cost control measures; revenue for 2025 is expected to be low after management decides to cut some low-profit business lines; and maintains the Group's increase rating, as it is anticipated that the advertising and gaming business will have room to rise.

The bank believes that the main driver of its stock price has shifted from user growth to profitability. Its stock price fell 31% from its peak in early January, reflecting investors' concerns about its revenue and profit growth prospects this year. The bank estimates adjusted net profit of $233 million in 2024, while the market generally expects a net loss of $1.1 billion; it is expected that the Group's revenue growth for the second and third quarters will return to 13% and 11% year-on-year. This is due to further recovery in advertising demand and the launch of new games in the second quarter.

In terms of stock prices, Bilibili-W bottomed out to HK$66.1 per share on October 31 last year. Since then, it has rebounded sharply. On January 6 this year, it once hit a stage high of HK$228 per share, with a range increase of about 220%. Subsequently, Bilibili-W pulled back again. As of March 20, it closed at HK$169.3 per share. It had already fallen more than 20% from the January high, and the biggest retracement in the range reached 31%.

According to the news, in early March, Bilibili-W released its 2022 financial report. The company achieved revenue of 21.9 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of about 13% over 2021, and a net loss of 7.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 10% over 6.8 billion yuan in 2021. In addition, financial reports also show that in 2022, Station B's operating cost reached 18 billion yuan, an increase of 18% over the previous year. Station B said it was mainly due to revenue sharing and increased content costs. Among them, the revenue share was mainly incentives/sharing given to Ups owners in the live streaming and advertising business, which reached 9.1 billion yuan, also an increase of 18%.

Throw high and low suction on Bilibili many times

It should be noted that since November of last year, J.P. Morgan has operated very frequently on the Bilibili-W in the short run, throwing high and low on many occasions.

For example, on March 3, before this holdings reduction, Bilibili-W had just received an increase of 1,472,100 shares from J.P. Morgan Chase at an average price of HK$167,752 per share. The shareholding ratio rose to 8.25%. On March 6, J.P. Morgan increased its holdings by 3.812,200 shares again, and the shareholding ratio rose to 9.4%. From March 3 to March 15, Bilibili-W's stock price increased by about 10.25%.

Another example is that on November 4, 2022, J.P. Morgan bought 219,800 BiliBili-W shares at an average price of HK$84.23. After holding the position for 11 days, J.P. Morgan sold 1,347,900 Bili-W shares at HK$1,13.59. The stock price of Bili-SW rose more than 60% during this period.

On November 30, 2022, J.P. Morgan purchased Bilibili-W1,209 million H shares at an average price of HK$120.9807 per share. The shareholding ratio increased from 10.79% to 11.17%, but after that, its holdings were reduced several times. By January 20, the shareholding ratio had dropped to 7.86%. The share price of Bilibili-SW had risen by about 85% during this period.

At the time, J.P. Morgan published a report. It is expected that Bilibili-W's performance for the fourth quarter of last year was roughly in line with expectations. Revenue is expected to increase 4% year-on-year to 6 billion yuan; online gaming revenue is estimated to regress 10% to 1.2 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the lack of new game launches and the decline in quarterly revenue of “Time and Space Hunter”. The bank is positive about the Group's prospects this year, and expects revenue from advertising demand to start recovering from the second quarter. On the gaming side, it is expected that “Jockey Girl” may obtain a license to import games within this year, and Motong will maintain the “increase” rating of Bilibili shares and the target price of HK$310.

Major international banks also operate frequently in the short term

A large increase in holdings in a short period of time was quickly sold. This phenomenon not only occurred when J.P. Morgan Chase operated Bilibili-W, but Bilibili-W was not J.P. Morgan's first short-term ticket.

For example, on March 13, Vanke's H shares were reduced by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Ltd. to 387.3344 million shares at an average price of HK$12.4789 per share, involving about HK$483 million. After the holdings were reduced, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s latest number of open positions was about 163.11 million shares, and the holding ratio dropped from 9.14% to 7.39%.

On March 1, J.P. Morgan just increased its holdings of Vanke's H shares. At that time, its share increase in Vanke's H shares increased from 7.28% to 9.18%. After that, on March 3, J.P. Morgan increased its holdings of Vanke's H shares again, increasing its shareholding ratio from 9.69% to 11.06%.

However, this short-term operation did not bring positive returns to J.P. Morgan. From March 1 to March 13, the stock price of Vanke's H shares remained on a downward trend, with a range drop of more than 8.7%.

Another example is that on the evening of February 22, according to Hong Kong Stock Exchange data, J.P. Morgan reduced its Hong Kong stock holdings on February 16$CM BANK (03968.HK)$There are approximately 2.62 million shares, with an average price of HK$449101 per share, with a total amount of about HK$1,169 million. On the first day, J.P. Morgan just increased its China Merchants Bank holdings by more than 10 million shares.

This short-term transaction began to be revealed at the end of last year. At that time, J.P. Morgan began “sweeping goods” in the Hong Kong stock market in November last year, adding more than 20 stocks such as Bilibili and Ping An of China. Among them, between November 11 and November 14, 2022 alone, the amount of shares purchased by J.P. Morgan in the Hong Kong stock market reached about HK$1.5 billion.

Take Ping An China as an example. On November 4, 2022, J.P. Morgan increased its holdings of Ping An H shares of China by 8.312,600 shares at an average price of HK$34.35. After holding the position for only 4 days, on November 8, J.P. Morgan sold 5,871,000 shares at an average price of HK$3636; three days later, J.P. Morgan once again bought 22.418,300 shares at HK$43.18 after holding the position for only 6 days. According to rough calculations, the short-term operation of J.P. Morgan Chase's frequent purchases and sales in Ping An, China has surged over HK$300 million.

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刚买完又卖近3亿！国际大行也爱短炒，这些个股常被"光顾"

Just bought it and sold for nearly 300 million! Major international banks also love to keep up the heat; these individual stocks are often “patronized”

摩根大通减持约3.33亿港元哔哩哔哩

国际大行也频繁短线操作

J.P. Morgan reduced its holdings by about HK$333 million

Major international banks also operate frequently in the short term

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