尽管渠道库存在过去几个月已经有所消耗，但仍远高于健康的4-6周范围。即便有大幅折扣，渠道和电脑制造商也预计高水位的库存将持续到年中，并可能持续到第三季度。Zhitong Financial APP learned that cooling demand, excess inventory and deteriorating macroeconomic environment were all factors contributing to the sharp decline in traditional PC shipments in the first quarter of 2023. According to the preliminary results of IDC's Global Quarterly tracking of personal Computing Devices, global shipments in the first quarter of 2023 were 56.9 million units, down 29% from the same period last year.
The preliminary results also show that the era of demand driven by COVID-19 's epidemic is over, at least temporarily returning to the state before COVID-19 's epidemic. Shipments in the first quarter of 2023 were significantly lower than 59.2 million in the first quarter of 2019 and 60.6 million in the first quarter of 2018.
Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC Mobile and Consumer device tracking, said:
Although channel inventory has been depleted in the past few months, it is still well above the healthy range of 4-6 weeks. Even with big discounts, channel and computer makers expect high-water inventories to last into the middle of the year and possibly into the third quarter.
Growth and the pause in demand also provide some room for adjustment in the supply chain, and many factories are beginning to explore production options outside China. Meanwhile, computer makers are readjusting their plans for the rest of the year and have begun withdrawing Chromebook orders as licensing fees are expected to rise later this year. In other words, PC shipments may be affected in the short term, but as the global economy improves and users begin to consider upgrading to Windows 11 PC shipments are expected to pick up by the end of the year.
Linn Huang, vice president of equipment and display research at IDC, said:
By 2024, old equipment will begin to need to be replaced. If the macroeconomic trend goes up by then, IDC expects the market to grow significantly, as consumers consider upgrading their devices, schools seek to replace old Chromebook, and companies upgrade to Windows 11. If the recession in major markets drags on into next year, recovery may be difficult.
