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Stock Scuttlebutt: NEC, SUL

Stock Scuttlebutt: NEC, SUL

Stock Scuttlebutt:NEC,
sharecafe ·  2023/05/04 06:07

The Macquarie conference this week has proved a bit of a confessional for the presenting companies, and Nine Entertainment and Super Retail were no different on Thursday.

事實證明,本週的麥格理會議對主辦公司來說有點自白,週四的Nine Entertainment和Super Retail也不例外。

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Nine Entertainment (ASX: NEC) has joined its rival Seven West Media in forecasting a slide in ad revenues in the year to June because of a steepening slide in second half spending by advertisers large and small.

Nine Entertainment (ASX: N 已與競爭對手Seven West Media一起預測,由於下半年大大小小的廣告商的支出急劇下滑,截至6月的一年中,廣告收入將下滑。

Nine CEO Mike Sneesby produced, as anticipated, a lowered forecast because of a slide in TV advertising volume and prices in a presentation to the Macquarieconference in Sydney on Thursday.

由於電視廣告量和價格下滑,Nine首席執行官邁克·斯內斯比在週四向悉尼麥格理會議發表的演講中如預期的那樣下調了預測。

Seven CEO James Warburton had earlier this week revealed his company's ad revenue downgrade and up to $20 million of additional (temporary) content cost cuts for the six months to June 30.

Seven首席執行官詹姆斯·沃伯頓本週早些時候透露,在截至6月30日的六個月中,其公司的廣告收入下調以及高達2000萬美元的額外(臨時)內容成本削減。

But in his address on Thursday, Nine's CEO said that while "Nine continues to expect to grow its revenue share of all key advertising platforms in the current half...the advertising market is expected to remain challenging through Q4 of FY23."

但Nine首席執行官在週四的講話中表示,儘管 “Nine繼續預計將在本半年增加其在所有主要廣告平臺中的收入份額... 預計到23財年第四季度,廣告市場仍將充滿挑戰。”

"Based on our current view of market conditions, Nine is expecting FY23 EBITDA to be around $590-600m."

“根據我們目前對市場狀況的看法,Nine預計23財年的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤約爲5.9億至6億美元。”

That would be down nearly 15% from the 2021-22 EBITDA of $701 million and a much faster rate of fall than the 9% fall revealed in the December half year results released in February this year.

這將比2021-22年度7.01億美元的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤下降近15%,下降速度要比今年2月發佈的12月半年度業績中公佈的9%的下降速度快得多。

"Consistent with our commentary in February, the Metro FTA market declined by around 15% in Q3 (on Q3 FY22), with a similar decline expected in Q4 (on Q4 FY22), albeit the market remains short, with limited visibility," Sneesby told the conference.

斯內斯比在會議上說:“與我們在2月份的評論一致,Metro FTA市場在第三季度(22財年第三季度)下跌了約15%,預計在第四季度(22財年第四季度)也將出現類似的下降,儘管市場仍然空缺,知名度有限。”

"The absence of key events, particularly the 2022 Federal Election, accounted for an estimated 6% points of this decline. Nine clearly outperformed the market, gaining more than 2.5 percentage points of share across the quarter, on previous corresponding quarter."

“關鍵事件的缺失,尤其是2022年聯邦大選,估計佔了下降的6%。Nine的表現顯然優於市場,整個季度的份額比上一個同期增長了2.5個百分點以上。”

"9Now continues its growth trajectory, with nearly 22% revenue growth in Q3, marginally ahead of February guidance. Whilst the structural growth in 9Now's audiences and engagement continues, the digital video market is not completely immune to the current advertising cycle.

“9Now繼續保持增長軌跡,第三季度收入增長近22%,略高於2月份的預期。儘管9Now觀衆和參與度的結構性增長仍在繼續,但數字視頻市場也無法完全不受當前廣告週期的影響。

"Together, this equates to Total Television advertising revenue for Nine which is expected to be down in the very low single digits (%) in FY23 compared to FY22, a strong outcome against the backdrop of a weak economy, reflecting ongoing revenue share gains.

“加在一起,這相當於Nine的電視廣告總收入預計將在23財年下降到非常低的個位數(%),在經濟疲軟的背景下,這是一個強勁的業績,反映了收入份額的持續增長。

"Total Television costs are expected to increase in the low single digits in the second half, resulting in FY23 Total Television cost growth of slightly below 7%, as per the February guidance."

“根據2月份的指引,預計下半年電視總成本將以個位數的低位數增長,導致23財年的電視總成本增長略低於7%。”

"Nine's Publishing business continues to benefit from the growth of digital audiences, with digital subscription revenue growth expected to be around 8% in H2. Earlier this month, and reflecting Nine's growing audience engagement, Nine communicated digital-only price increases across The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, WA Today and The Brisbane Times that are due to commence during May. Initial reporting suggests that these price increases have not resulted in a significant increase in churn.

“Nine的出版業務繼續受益於數字受衆的增長,預計下半年數字訂閱收入將增長約8%。本月早些時候,Nine傳達了僅限數字的價格上漲,這反映了Nine的觀衆參與度不斷提高 悉尼先驅晨報時代今日西澳州 《布里斯班時報》 定於五月開始。初步報告表明,這些價格上漲並未導致流失率的大幅增加。

"Once implemented, this should lead to a meaningful increase in ARPU and digital subscription revenue from these titles. Notwithstanding, as commented with the interim result, a more challenging advertising and cost environment in H2 will result in greater-than-normal EBITDA phasing to the first half," Sneesby told the meeting.

“一旦實施,這將使這些遊戲的ARPU和數字訂閱收入大幅增加。儘管如此,正如在中期業績中所評論的那樣,下半年更具挑戰性的廣告和成本環境將導致上半年的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤分階段超過正常水平,” 斯內斯比在會議上說。

Nine shares dropped 1% to $2.01.

九股下跌1%,至2.01美元。

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Meanwhile, shares in Super Retail Group (ASX: SUL) sank sharply after it, too, used the Macquarie colloquy to reveal problems - in this case a rise in second half costs from higher wages, rents, energy costs and building delays.

同時,股價爲 超級零售集團 (ASX: SUL) 在它利用麥格理座談會揭露問題之後,它也大幅下跌——在本例中,下半年成本因工資、租金、能源成本上漲和建築延誤而上漲。

The shares ended down 7.1% at $12.49 after touching a low of $12.36.

該股在觸及12.36美元的低點後,收盤下跌7.1%,至12.49美元。

"The way we think about it, underlying demand for retail will be flat to negative. We are planning for the worst and hoping for the best," CEO Anthony Heraghty told the Macquarie Australia Conference.

“從我們的角度來看,零售的基本需求將持平至負數。我們正在爲最壞的情況做準備,也希望有最好的結果。” 首席執行官安東尼·赫拉格蒂在麥格理澳大利亞會議上說。

The company said in a trading update based on the presentation that its second half group gross margin to date "is 10bps below gross margin (which was 46.2%) delivered in the first half."

該公司在基於該報告的最新交易報告中表示,其下半年集團迄今爲止的毛利率 “比上半年的毛利率(46.2%)低10個基點。”

Mr Heraghty said "Following strong trading in the key Easter holiday period, the Group has continued to deliver positive like-for-like sales growth in FY23 YTD."

Heraghty表示:“繼關鍵的復活節假期交易強勁之後,集團在23財年年初至今繼續實現正的同比銷售增長。”

"Supercheap Auto has seen an ongoing shift in consumer demand to less discretionary items with auto maintenance and lubricants the strongest performing categories.

“Supercheap Auto的消費者需求持續轉向自由裁量較少的產品,其中汽車保養和潤滑油是表現最強的類別。

"Rebel has achieved strong sales growth in football and basketball. The trading performance of new regional stores in Ballina, Nowra, Tamworth and Bunbury is highly encouraging.

“Rebel 在足球和籃球領域實現了強勁的銷售增長。位於巴利納、瑙拉、塔姆沃思和班伯裏的新區域門店的交易表現非常令人鼓舞。

"BCF sales reflect a growing contribution from strategic brands. The level of promotional intensity in the camping and outdoor category remains high, with aggressive mark down activity from competitors.

“BCF的銷售反映了戰略品牌的貢獻越來越大。露營和戶外類別的促銷強度仍然很高,競爭對手的降價活動也很激烈。

"Macpac delivered a record Easter trading result driven by higher sales in both Australia and New Zealand."

“在澳大利亞和新西蘭銷售額增加的推動下,Macpac取得了創紀錄的復活節交易業績。”

Mr Heraghty said offshore freight costs have returned to pre-pandemic levels "however inflationary pressures on wages, rent and energy expenses will impact Group CODB in the second half."

赫拉格蒂表示,離岸運費已恢復到疫情前的水平,“但是工資、租金和能源支出的通貨膨脹壓力將在下半年影響Group CODB。”

"The Group has opened 14 stores in FY23 year to date, with a further 13 stores scheduled to be opened by the end of FY23. Given delays in construction & development approvals, there is a risk that some store openings will slip into FY24.

“到目前爲止,該集團已在23財年開設了14家門店,另有13家門店計劃在23財年末開業。鑑於施工和開發批准的延遲,一些門店的開業有可能延遲到24財年。

"The macro environment remains challenging; however, the Group's large active club member loyalty base and leading market positions in the resilient auto and sports categories mean it is well positioned to perform throughout the economic cycle," he added.

他補充說:“宏觀環境仍然充滿挑戰;但是,集團龐大的活躍俱樂部會員忠誠度基礎以及在彈性汽車和運動類別中的領先市場地位意味着它完全有能力在整個經濟週期中表現出色。”

All up that sounds like growing pressure on margins, hence the sharp fall in the share price.

所有這些聽起來像是利潤壓力越來越大,因此股價急劇下跌。

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