Manufacturing Slides Further While Housing Stabilizes
Manufacturing Slides Further While Housing Stabilizes
Summary
摘要
Industrial production fell 0.4 percent in September, following a 0.8 percent gain in August. The September fall is the second drop in three months. Over the past year, industrial production is down 0.1 percent. Total capacity utilization decreased 0.4 percentage points to 77.5 percent as capacity posted a 0.2 percent gain for the month.
9月份工业生产下降0.4%，8月份增长0.8%。9月份的下降是三个月内的第二次下降。在过去的一年里，工业生产下降了百分之零点一。总产能利用率下降0.4个百分点，至77.5%，当月产能增长0.2%。
Manufacturing output, which accounts for about 75 percent of total industrial production, fell 0.5 percent after rising 0.6 percent in August. Manufacturing output is also down in two of the past three months, resulting in a 0.9 percent drop over the past year (see bottom chart), the worst performance since 2016.
占工业总产值约75%的制造业产出，在8月份上升0.6%后，又下降了0.5%。制造业产出在过去三个月中也有两个月下降，导致过去一年下降0.9%(见下图)，这是自2016年以来表现最差的一次。
Mining output posted a 1.3 percent decline for the month while utilities output rose 1.4 percent in September. Over the past year, mining output is up 2.6 percent while utilities output is up 1.2 percent.
9月矿业产出下降1.3%，公用事业产出上升1.4%.在过去的一年里，矿业产量增长了2.6%，公用事业产量增长了1.2%。
Manufacturing-sector weakness was led by a sharp fall in production of motor vehicles, primarily related to a strike at a major manufacturer. Total motor vehicle and motor vehicle-parts production was down 4.2 percent for the month as vehicle assemblies fell to 10.71 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate from 11.26 million in August. Most segments of vehicles showed declines for the month with automobile assemblies falling to 2.57 million, light trucks falling to 7.77 million, and medium and heavy trucks holding at 0.37 million. Primary metals fell 1.6 percent while machinery production fell 1.4 percent. Over the past year, motor vehicle production is off 5.4 percent while primary metals were down 3.3 percent and machinery production is down 2.9 percent.
制造业的疲软是由机动车产量大幅下降导致的，主要与一家主要制造商的罢工有关。机动车和机动车零部件总产量当月下降4.2%，经季节性调整后的年率从8月份的1126万辆降至1071万辆。大多数车型当月都出现了下降，汽车总装量降至257万辆，轻型卡车降至777万辆，中型和重型卡车为37万辆。初级金属下降1.6%，机械生产下降1.4%。在过去的一年里，机动车产量下降了5.4%，初级金属下降了3.3%，机械生产下降了2.9%。
The drops in motor vehicle, primary metals, and machinery production dragged total durable-goods production down 0.7 percent while nondurable-goods production was off 0.2 percent for the month. Among nondurable-goods producers, chemicals (12.7 percent of total industrial production and 35.7 percent of nondurable goods) fell 0.5 percent while food-products production (11.3 percent of total output and 31.8 percent of nondurables) rose 0.2 percent. These two categories account for two-thirds of nondurable-goods output.
汽车、初级金属和机械生产的下降拖累了耐用品总产量下降0.7%，而非耐用品生产当月下降了0.2%。在非耐用品生产商中，化学品(占工业总产值的12.7%，占非耐用品的35.7%)下降了0.5%，而食品生产(占总产量的11.3%，占非耐用品的31.8%)上升了0.2%。这两类产品占非耐用品产量的三分之二。
Measured by market segment, consumer-goods production was down 0.2 percent in September, with consumer durables off 1.9 percent and consumer nondurables up 0.3 percent. Business-equipment production fell 0.7 percent in September while construction supplies were unchanged for the month.
按细分市场衡量，9月份消费品生产下降了0.2%，耐用消费品下降了1.9%，非耐用消费品上升了0.3%。9月份商业设备产量下降0.7%，而建筑供应持平。
Materials production (about 46 percent of output) decreased 0.5 percent for the month and is up 0.2 percent from a year ago. The energy component has been a major source of volatility in this category, particularly following the collapse of energy prices in mid-2014. The non-energy component fell 0.6 percent for the month and is down 1.4 percent from a year ago.
材料产量(约占产量的46%)当月下降0.5%，比去年同期上升0.2%。能源部分一直是这一类别波动的主要来源，特别是在2014年年中能源价格暴跌之后。非能源类股当月下降0.6%，较上年同期下降1.4%。
Manufacturing-capacity utilization dropped to 75.3 percent in September, down 0.4 percentage points from 75.7 percent in August.
9月份制造业产能利用率降至75.3%，比8月份的75.7%下降了0.4个百分点。
Housing construction activity was weaker in September as total starts fell by 9.4 percent and permits for future construction fell 2.7 percent. Total housing starts dropped to a 1.256 million annual rate from a 1.386 million pace in August.
9月份房屋建设活动疲软，总开工数下降9.4%，未来建设许可下降2.7%。房屋总开工年率从8月份的138.6万套降至125.6万套。
The dominant single-family segment, which accounts for about three-fourths of new home construction, rose 0.3 percent for the month to a rate of 918,000 units, marking the fourth gain in a row (see top chart). Starts of multifamily structures with five or more units sank 28.3 percent to 327,000, pushing activity to the lower end of the 300,000 to 450,000 range that multifamily starts have been in for much of the last two economic expansions (see top chart). From a year ago, total starts are up 1.6 percent, with single-family starts up 4.3 percent and multifamily starts off 5.8 percent.
独栋住宅占主导地位，约占新房开工量的四分之三，本月上涨0.3%，至91.8万套，标志着连续第四次上涨(见上图)。具有五个或更多单元的多户住宅开工数下降28.3%，至32.7万户，将活动推至多户住宅开工数30万至45万之间的低端，在过去两次经济扩张的大部分时间里，多户住宅开工数一直处于这一区间的低端(见上图)。与一年前相比，总开工数上升了1.6%，其中单户家庭开工数增加了4.3%，多户家庭开工数增加了5.8%。
Among the four regions in the report, total starts fell in all four regions: The Northeast (−34.3 percent), the Midwest (−18.9 percent), and the South (−4.0 percent), and the West (−1.9 percent). For the single-family segment, starts fell in three regions but were up 7.1 percent in the South, the largest region by volume.
在报告中的四个地区中，所有四个地区的总开工数都有所下降：东北部(−34.3%)、中西部(−18.9%)、南部(−4.0%)和西部(−1.9%)。在独栋住宅方面，有三个地区的开工数下降，但南部地区的开工数上升了7.1%，南部地区是销量最大的地区。
For housing permits, total permits fell 2.7 percent to 1.387 million from 1.425 million in August. Single-family permits rose 0.8 percent to 882,000 in September, the fifth monthly gain in a row (see top chart). Within the multifamily segment, permits for two- to four-family units were off 16.7 percent and permits for five or more units fell 7.5 percent to 470,000. Permits for single-family structures are up 2.8 percent from a year ago while permits for two- to four-family structures are down 14.6 percent and permits for structures with five or more units are up 20.8 percent over the past year.
住房许可证方面，总许可证从8月份的142.5万份下降到138.7万份，下降了2.7%。9月份，独栋住宅许可证增长0.8%，至88.2万户，连续第五个月增长(见上图)。在多户住宅板块中，两到四户住宅的许可证下降了16.7%，五户或五户以上的许可证下降了7.5%，至47万户。独栋建筑的许可证比一年前上升了2.8%，而两到四户建筑的许可证下降了14.6%，而有五个或更多单元的建筑的许可证在过去一年里上升了20.8%。
Overall, single-family housing activity has posted a modest rebound over the last several months following a period of weakness from early 2018 through early 2019. The sharp drop in mortgage rates may be providing a bit of a tailwind, but there is little evidence to suggest a significant and sustainable acceleration in single-family housing activity in coming months and quarters. Activity levels remain at or below the typical levels during prior expansions over the past 35 years.
总体而言，在2018年初至2019年初经历了一段疲软时期后，独栋住宅活动在过去几个月出现了温和反弹。抵押贷款利率的大幅下降可能提供了一点顺风，但几乎没有证据表明，未来几个月和几个季度，独户住宅活动将大幅和可持续地加速。活动水平保持在或低于过去35年前扩张期间的典型水平。
Multifamily housing remains generally robust, sustaining activity at levels consistent with the prior two economic expansions. However, given the high level, it's unlikely that it can go much higher. Therefore, total residential investment is unlikely to be a significant and sustained source of growth for the economy.
多户住宅总体上保持强劲，活动维持在与前两次经济扩张一致的水平。然而，考虑到这一高水平，它不太可能再走得更高。因此，住宅投资总额不太可能成为经济增长的重要和持续来源。
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
编者注：本文的摘要项目符号是由寻找Alpha编辑选择的。
