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Is Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain (SZSE:002210) A Risky Investment?

Is Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain (SZSE:002210) A Risky Investment?

深圳飛馬國際供應鏈 (SZSE: 002210) 是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/07/03 23:46

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002210) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

沃倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。重要的是, 深圳飛馬國際供應鏈有限公司 (SZSE: 002210) 確實有債務。但是,這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時會成爲問題?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務是幫助企業增長的工具,但是如果企業無法償還貸款人的債務,那麼債務就會任由他們擺佈。資本主義的重要組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常看到負債累累的公司會永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款機構迫使他們以不利的價格籌集資金。當然,債務的好處在於,它通常代表廉價資本,尤其是當它取代一家有能力以高回報率進行再投資的公司的稀釋時。考慮公司債務水平的第一步是將其現金和債務一起考慮。

View our latest analysis for Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain

查看我們對深圳飛馬國際供應鏈的最新分析

What Is Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain's Net Debt?

深圳飛馬國際供應鏈的淨負債是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain had debt of CN¥241.7m at the end of March 2023, a reduction from CN¥362.5m over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥110.8m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥130.8m.

下圖顯示深圳飛馬國際供應鏈截至2023年3月底的債務爲2.417億元人民幣,低於同比的3.625億元人民幣,您可以點擊下圖瞭解更多詳情。但是,由於其現金儲備爲1.108億元人民幣,因此其淨負債較少,約爲1.308億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002210 Debt to Equity History July 4th 2023
SZSE: 002210 債務轉股歷史 2023 年 7 月 4 日

How Strong Is Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain's Balance Sheet?

深圳飛馬國際供應鏈的資產負債表有多強?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain had liabilities of CN¥662.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥337.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥110.8m in cash and CN¥214.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥674.9m.

從最新的資產負債表中我們可以看出,深圳飛馬國際供應鏈在一年內到期的負債爲6.626億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲3.379億元人民幣。抵消這一點的是,它有1.108億元人民幣的現金和2.148億元的應收賬款,這些應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額6.749億人民幣。

Since publicly traded Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain shares are worth a total of CN¥5.00b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

由於上市的深圳飛馬國際供應鏈股票的總價值爲5.00億人民幣,因此這種負債水平似乎不太可能成爲重大威脅。但是,我們當然會建議股東在未來繼續監控資產負債表,有足夠的負債。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。這種方法的優勢在於,我們既考慮了債務的絕對數量(包括淨負債與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤),也考慮了與該債務相關的實際利息支出(及其利息覆蓋率)。

Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Pleasingly, Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain is growing its EBIT faster than former Australian PM Bob Hawke downs a yard glass, boasting a 151% gain in the last twelve months. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

深圳飛馬國際供應鏈的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率爲2.7,這表明債務巨大,但對於大多數類型的業務來說仍然相當合理。但是,其1k的利息覆蓋率非常高,這表明債務的利息支出目前相當低。令人高興的是,深圳飛馬國際供應鏈的息稅前利潤增長速度快於澳大利亞前總理鮑勃·霍克(Bob Hawke),在過去十二個月中增長了151%。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲深圳飛馬國際供應鏈需要收益來償還這筆債務。因此,如果你想進一步瞭解其收益,可能值得看看這張關於其長期收益趨勢的圖表。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last two years, Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法削減債務。因此,值得一看的是,息稅前利潤中有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的兩年中,深圳飛馬國際供應鏈消耗了大量現金。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險大得多。

Our View

我們的觀點

Based on what we've seen Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain is not finding it easy, given its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. When we consider all the elements mentioned above, it seems to us that Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain is managing its debt quite well. But a word of caution: we think debt levels are high enough to justify ongoing monitoring. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain .

根據我們所看到的情況,鑑於深圳飛馬國際供應鏈將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流,這並不容易,但是我們考慮的其他因素使我們有理由感到樂觀。毫無疑問,它用息稅前利潤支付利息支出的能力簡直是曇花一現。當我們考慮上述所有要素時,在我們看來,深圳飛馬國際供應鏈的債務管理得很好。但要謹慎一點:我們認爲債務水平足夠高,足以證明持續監測是合理的。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。爲此,你應該意識到 2 個警告標誌 我們發現了深圳飛馬國際供應鏈。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是一般性的。 我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章無意提供財務建議。 它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未將最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料考慮在內。簡而言之,華爾街對上述任何股票都沒有頭寸。

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