Where is the end of the “price war” for Tesla, which relies on Model 3 and Model Y to boost sales? Will it be when the Cybertruck electric pickup truck is delivered?

Wall Street News pointed out in the article that Tesla's single-quarter deliveries reached a new high in the second quarter, but inventories are still increasing.Tesla production exceeds delivery for the fifth consecutive quarter.

In a recent report this week, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote,They think Tesla needs to continue price reduction promotions and make concessions to stimulate demand:

“We think Tesla needs to cut prices further and increase promotions this year or next, which undoubtedly puts further pressure on profit margins.”

However, price reduction promotions alone may not be enough for Tesla's overall sales volume. Gary Black, a well-known Tesla leader and co-founder and managing partner of the Future Fund (Future Fund), tweeted once again on July 4 about the importance of Cybertruck to Tesla's future.

Black expects Tesla's sales volume to increase dramatically by 53% in 2024, boosted by Cybertruck, which will also further stimulate Tesla's stock price. Since this year, Tesla's stock price has surged more than 161% to $282.48.

Will Tesla continue to cut prices while inventories continue to increase?

Tesla delivered more than 4661,000 vehicles to global customers in the second quarter, an increase of 83% over the previous year, about 24,000 more vehicles than analysts' forecasts, while production was 479,700 vehicles, exceeding delivery volume by 13,600 vehicles. In the past year,The cumulative production volume of Tesla is about 74,000 more vehicles than the vehicles delivered.

At a time when fish and bear hands are not compatible, it is clear that Tesla resolutely chose the former in terms of sales growth and profit growth.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in a performance call after the earnings conference that in the short term, scale is more important to Tesla than profit.

Right now,The impact of the market's attention on Tesla's second-quarter and full-year profit margins after the “price war”In response to this, many Wall Street analysts believe that the gross margin of Tesla cars will inevitably fall below 20% by the end of this year. A Deutsche Bank analyst wrote in a report: “We still believe that Tesla is at risk of further price cuts for the rest of this year and 2024.”

In the face of record deliveries, the biggest heroes are still the Model Y and Model 3. The Model Y not only took over the US market, but is also the best-selling model in the European market and the best-selling SUV in the Chinese market.

According to a Bloomberg analysis, Tesla now needs to think about how to squeeze more sales growth out of the two cars that account for 97% of its sales volume.

However, the Model Y and Model 3 were released three and six years ago, respectively, and now the market is expecting Tesla to release another “breadwinner” model, which is likely to be the high-profile Cybertruck.

Did the “price war” lead to pickup trucks?

Gary Black once again tweeted about the importance of the Cybertruck, the electric pickup that Tesla may launch at the end of the third quarter of this year.

In Black's opinion,Since pickups account for 20% of the US car market, Cybertruck will expand Tesla's potential market range (TAM):

The people shorting Tesla really don't understand how important Cybertruck will be for the growth of Tesla's overall business in 2024. Tesla's TAM will grow dramatically with the launch of Cybertruck.

Black expects Tesla's sales volume to increase significantly by 53% in 2024, boosted by Cybertruck

Surprise sales of the 2021 Model Y model caused Tesla (stock price) to soar 743% in 2020 (while the NASDAQ rose 50%).

Similarly, Cybertruck's sales aura will drive Tesla's overall sales growth to over 50% in 2024.

The release of Cybertruck is very important to Tesla. Tesla's latest official comment on the schedule is that it is scheduled to be delivered “around the end of the third quarter.” Cybertruck has “skipped tickets” many times. Its launch can be said to be Tesla's most anticipated model this year. Tesla fans think this will be a critical moment.

Wall Street News mentioned earlier that an essay on “Cybertruck” once boosted Tesla's stock price last month. According to the Electrek report, Tesla plans to produce 375,000 Cybertrucks a year. This number far exceeds Wall Street expectations. Analysts had previously predicted that production would be less than 100,000 units in 2024, to about 240,000 units by 2027.

Recently, Tesla CEO Musk also gave Tesla Cybertruck production forecasts at Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting. He believes that around 250,000 vehicles could be produced each year, but he later added that it might be between 250,000 and 500,000 units.

Can the new Model 3 and Model Y stimulate sales?

Musk has emphasized time and again that the price of Cybertruck will not be low. Musk initially stated that the starting price of this pickup truck would be less than $40,000. However, by 2021, such an “tempting” price had already been removed from the Tesla website.

Musk told shareholders last year that CyberTruck's specs and pricing have changed since its launch in 2019. Now Tesla has only stated: “The final price list will be available to you as the delivery date approaches.”

Therefore, before it can mass-produce new cars at a lower cost, Tesla still needs to bet its “treasure” on Model 3 and Model Y.

At the end of last year, there was news that Tesla was designing a new Model 3. The project code name is “Highland” (Highland), which is expected to be launched in the second half of 2023. The report also said that the new Model 3 will be completely adjusted in terms of appearance, interior, configuration and power system.

Subsequently, a model 3 prototype with a camouflage was spotted for testing in California. In April of this year, the first undisguised photo of the new Model 3 was leaked, showing changes in the headlights, bumpers, rearview mirrors, and interior.

In March of this year, Reuters quoted three people familiar with the matter as reporting that the new Model Y model with the internal code name Project Juniper will also be officially launched in the third quarter of 2024, and is expected to go on sale as soon as the fourth quarter of the same year. According to reports, the new car is also expected to be equipped with the same LCD digital meter as the new Model 3 for the first time, slightly adjusted in terms of body size, and adopted a 2+3+2 seven-seater layout design.

Although Tesla has made every effort to expand sales, as established US car manufacturers develop electric vehicles one after another, the market expectsIn the future, Tesla's market share will shrink further.

Bank of America analysts estimated in a report that Tesla's share of the US electric vehicle market will drop to 18% by 2026. Compared with Tesla's 62% market share in the US electric vehicle market in 2022, this ratio dropped sharply, not to mention the peak of Tesla's 78% market share in 2018.