Institutions: Hong Kong stocks await a critical policy window period, and the market may maintain a volatile trend

中金策略 · Jul 9, 2023 21:43

来源：中金策略
作者：刘刚、王牧遥、张巍瀚

摘要

继此前一周短暂企稳后，港股市场上周大幅回调，几乎跌至5月底的低点，其中价值板块跌幅居前。往前看，7月是中美市场的关键政策窗口期，对未来市场走势具有决定性作用。美国核心CPI受低基数影响下行较慢、中国出台新一轮大规模刺激政策可能性较低，受这两个因素影响，7月中美市场可能维持震荡走势，7月以来当前全球市场再现波动一定程度上印证了我们的观点。我们认为至少在可预见的未来，市场或将维持震荡走势。但美债和港股市场先期快速回调也并非完全是一件坏事，在当前下行保护较为充足的情况下，市场风险收益呈现一定吸引力。

这一背景下，我们建议投资者在更为有效的政策举措出现前，坚守我们在过去几个月推荐的两大策略：1）做波段，即市场超卖时（如在目前水平）逢低配置，预期较为充分时获利回吐；2）做结构，不确定性中坚持“哑铃型”策略，能够兼具平衡和对冲效果（高分红比例加优质成长板块）。

正文

静待政策关键窗口期

市场前景展望

继此前一周短暂企稳后，港股市场上周大幅回调，几乎跌至5月底的低点，其中价值板块跌幅居前。美联储政策紧缩担忧升温并带动美债利率快速走高，是港股市场回调的主要因素。10年期美债利率再度突破4%关口，离岸人民币兑美元汇率再次攀升，同时外资重新流出，这些因素均对投资者情绪形成压制，港股市场反应则尤为明显。此外值得关注的是，在房地产和地方政府债务压力犹存的背景下，市场对银行板块的盈利能力和资产质量忧虑增加，银行板块上周首当其冲。

图表：上周10年期美债利率在3月以来首次突破4%关口

我们在本月初发布的海外资产配置月报中指出，7月是中美市场的关键政策窗口期，对未来市场走势具有决定性作用。美国核心CPI受低基数影响下行较慢、中国出台新一轮大规模刺激政策可能性较低，受这两个因素影响，7月中美市场可能维持震荡走势，7月以来当前全球市场再现波动一定程度上印证了我们的观点。往前看，我们认为至少在可预见的未来，市场或将维持震荡走势。

不过，美债和港股市场先期快速回调也并非完全是一件坏事，这是因为：1）我们判断三季度美国核心CPI可能快速下降，因此当前10年期美债利率相对过高，但投资者仍需耐心观望，直至7月中旬美国CPI数据公布；2）恒生指数再度接近18,000点关口，整体市净率跌破1倍（恒生指数和恒生国企指数目前市净率分别降至0.97倍和0.91倍），7月5日卖空成交占比攀升至27%的高点。我们认为，在当前下行保护较为充足的情况下，市场风险收益呈现一定吸引力。国务院总理李强7月6日主持召开经济形势专家座谈会，提出要及时出台、抓紧实施一批针对性、组合性、协同性强的政策措施[1]。我们认为，相较单纯的货币宽松或实行其他层面的支持措施，推行有望实现信用扩张的有效政策（财政或房地产）更为重要。计划于7月末召开的中央政治局会议可能将发挥一定催化作用。

图表：恒生指数和恒生国企指数目前市净率下探至0.97倍和0.91倍

国内方面，中国6月财新PMI环比走低，市场观望政策积极信号后续兑现效果。在此前一系列经济数据表现不及预期后，最新公布的数据同样证实国内经济增长压力犹存，未能提振市场情绪。6月中国财新制造业PMI环比走低0.4ppt；服务业PMI环比回落3.2ppt，创下2月以来的最低水平。虽然国内政策积极信号不断出现，包括国务院总理主持召开经济形势专家座谈会，提出将出台一系列稳增长政策措施，以及央行下调美元存款利率来平衡人民币汇率贬值压力等。计划于7月末召开的中央政治局会议将成为政策博弈的重要窗口。此外，中国央行处罚蚂蚁集团和腾讯旗下财付通等平台企业也可以看作是一个积极信号，金融管理部门的工作重点从推动平台企业金融业务的集中整改转入常态化监管，表明较为糟糕的情形可能已经过去[2]。

外部方面，美联储加息预期升温，建议关注7月美国CPI和FOMC会议决策。美联储发布6月FOMC会议纪要，几乎所有官员都认为今年还将多次加息。这一鹰派观点导致市场对于7月后加息预期再度升温，10年美债利率自今年3月以来再度突破4%关口。此外，美国最新公布的经济及就业数据显示通胀压力尚存，7月加息预期已基本确定。6月美国ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升，录得53.9（vs.5月50.3）。6月美国非农就业人数增加20.9万人，低于预期的23万人，但工资增速超过市场预期。另外，美国财政部长耶伦访华、美国公众公司会计监督委员会（PCAOB）再度审查更多中概股公司的消息与进展也值得密切关注。

这一背景下，我们建议投资者在更为有效的政策举措出现前，坚守我们在过去几个月推荐的两大策略：1）做波段，即市场超卖时（如在目前水平）逢低配置，预期较为充分时获利回吐；2）做结构，不确定性中坚持“哑铃型”策略，能够兼具平衡和对冲效果（高分红比例加优质成长板块）（请参考我们分别于4月9日和5月14日发布的报告《关注“哑铃型”结构机会》和《高分红国企行情能否延续？》）。

图表： 5日移动平均卖空占比上行至17%以上

具体来看，支撑我们观点的主要逻辑和上周需要关注的因素主要包括：

1）7月6日国务院总理主持召开经济形势专家座谈会，将出台一系列稳增长政策措施。国务院总理李强指出，当前中国正处在经济恢复和产业升级关键期，要注重打好政策“组合拳”，围绕稳增长、稳就业、防风险等，及时出台、抓紧实施一批针对性、组合性、协同性强的政策措施。围绕高质量发展首要任务，在转方式、调结构、增动能上下更大功夫。通过增强工作互动性来增强决策科学性，建立健全政府与民营企业、外资企业等各类企业常态化沟通交流机制[1]。

2）金融管理部门对蚂蚁集团等机构实施处罚，工作重点从推动平台企业金融业务的集中整改转入常态化监管。7月7日，金融管理部门对蚂蚁集团及旗下机构处以罚款71.23亿元，要求蚂蚁集团关停违规开展的“相互宝”业务，并依法补偿消费者利益。此外，针对以往执法检查中发现的问题，金融管理部门近期也对邮储银行、平安银行、人保财险和财付通公司等实施了行政处罚。下一步，金融管理部门将落实促进平台经济健康发展的金融政策措施[2]。

3）美联储6月FOMC会议纪要“放鹰”，加息预期再度升温。美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，几乎所有美联储官员在6月会议上都表示，可能会进一步收紧政策，虽然收紧速度要慢于2022年初以来货币政策的快速加息。18名与会者中，除2人外，其他人都预计今年至少加息一次，12人则预计加息两次或更多。7月加息已基本确定[3]。

4）美国6月非农新增就业低于预期，工资增速高于预期。美国6月非农新增就业20.9万人，低于预期的23万人。由于口径不同，美国6月非农数据与ADP就业报告存在较大背离。美国ADP就业报告显示，6月美国私营部门就业人数季调后增加49.7万人，为市场预期22.5万人的两倍多。此外，美国6月劳动参与率为62.6%，与前值持平，失业率小幅降至3.6%（5月为3.7%）；工资增速环比持平0.4%，高于预期的0.3%，同比4.4%也高于市场预期的4.2%。结构上，就业仍以教育健康等服务业贡献为主，建筑业新增就业人数也保持较高水平。

5）流动性：海外主动型基金上周转为流出海外中资股市场，南向资金仍然保持流入势头。具体看，来自EPFR的数据显示，上周海外主动型基金再度转为流出海外中资股市场，流出规模为2.31亿美元。与此同时，中国内地投资者上周通过港股通增持了共计67.1亿港元的港股。

图表：上周海外主动型基金转为流出海外中资股市场

投资建议

虽然政策“推高不足托底有余”可能对应市场短期“上有顶下有底”，但我们认为港股市场存在结构性机会，类似2019年下半年。配置策略上，我们建议投资者继续参与市场波动带来的机会或者采取哑铃型配置策略，关注高分红潜力的国企（分红现金流）以及盈利较好的优质成长板块（经营性现金流，如互联网、软硬件以及部分医疗保健板块），以及因美联储未来政策转向而从中受益的投资标的。

重点关注事件

7月底中央政治局经济工作会议；美联储7月FOMC会议；中美关系。

[1] https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202307/content_6890339.htm

[2] http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c7418599/content.shtml

[3] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230705a.htm

编辑/jayden

Source: CICC Strategy
Authors: Liu Gang, Wang Muyao, Zhang Weihan

summary

Following a short period of stabilization over the previous week, the Hong Kong stock market pulled back sharply last week, falling almost to a low point at the end of May. Among them, the value sector had the highest decline.Looking ahead, July is the key policy window period for the Chinese and American markets.It plays a decisive role in future market trends. Affected by these two factors, the US core CPI is affected by the low base and the decline is slow, and the possibility that China will introduce a new round of large-scale stimulus policies is low.The Chinese and American markets are likely to maintain a volatile trend in July.The current fluctuation in the global market since July confirms our view to a certain extent.We think the market may maintain a volatile trend for at least the foreseeable future. However, the early rapid pullback in the US debt and Hong Kong stock markets is not entirely a bad thing.In the current situation where downside protection is sufficient, the risk return of the market is showing some appeal.

In this context, we recommend that investors stick to the two strategies we have recommended over the past few months before more effective policy initiatives are introduced:1) Make a band,That is, when the market is oversold (such as at the current level), there is a low allocation, and profits return when expectations are sufficient;2) Structuring and adhering to a “dumbbell” strategy in the midst of uncertainty can have both balance and hedging effects(High dividend ratio plus high quality growth sector).

Main text

Wait for the critical policy window

Market outlook

Following a short period of stabilization over the previous week, the Hong Kong stock market pulled back sharply last week, falling almost to a low point at the end of May. Among them, the value sector had the highest decline.Concerns about the Fed's policy tightening have heated up and driven interest rates on US bonds to rise rapidly, which is the main factor in the correction in the Hong Kong stock market.Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds have once again broken through the 4% mark, the exchange rate of the offshore renminbi against the US dollar has risen again, and foreign capital has flowed out again. These factors all suppress investor sentiment, and the reaction of the Hong Kong stock market is particularly obvious. Furthermore, it is worth noting that in a context where pressure on real estate and local government debt still exists, the market's concerns about the profitability and asset quality of the banking sector have increased, and the banking sector has borne the brunt of this last week.

Chart: Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds broke through the 4% mark for the first time since March last week

As we stated in our monthly report on overseas asset allocation released at the beginning of this month,July is a critical policy window period for the Chinese and American markets.It plays a decisive role in future market trends. Affected by these two factors, the US core CPI is affected by the low base and the decline is slow, and the possibility that China will introduce a new round of large-scale stimulus policies is low.The Chinese and American markets are likely to maintain a volatile trend in JulyThe current fluctuation in the global market since July confirms our view to a certain extent. Looking ahead, we think the market may maintain a volatile trend for at least the foreseeable future.

However, the early rapid pullback in the US debt and Hong Kong stock markets is not entirely a bad thing.This is because: 1) We judge that the US core CPI may decline rapidly in the third quarter, soCurrently, interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds are relatively high.However, investors still need to wait and see until the US CPI data is released in mid-July; 2) The Hang Seng Index once again approached the 18,000 mark, and the overall net market ratio fell below 1 times (the current net market ratio of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index fell 0.97 times and 0.91 times, respectively), and the share of short selling transactions climbed to a high of 27% on July 5. In our opinion,In the current situation where downside protection is sufficient, the risk return of the market is showing some appeal.Premier Li Qiang of the State Council hosted a symposium of experts on the economic situation on July 6, proposing that a number of targeted, integrated, and highly collaborative policies and measures should be introduced in a timely manner and implemented as soon as possible [1].We believe it is more important to implement effective policies (finance or real estate) that are expected to achieve credit expansion than simple monetary easing or implementation of support measures at other levels.The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee scheduled to be held at the end of July may play a catalytic role.

Chart: The current net market ratio of the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index has dropped 0.97 times and 0.91 times

On the domestic side, China's Caixin PMI fell month-on-month in June, and the market wait-and-see policy showed positive signs of subsequent implementation results.After a series of previous economic data fell short of expectations, the latest released data also confirmed that domestic economic growth pressure still exists and has failed to boost market sentiment. In June, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI fell 0.4ppt month-on-month; the service sector PMI fell 3.2ppt month-on-month, the lowest level since February. Although positive signs of domestic policy continue to appear, including the Premier of the State Council hosting a symposium of experts on the economic situation, proposing that a series of policies and measures for steady growth will be introduced, and that the central bank will lower interest rates on US dollar deposits to balance the pressure of the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate. The Politburo meeting scheduled to be held at the end of July will be an important window for policy games. Furthermore, the punishment of platform companies such as Ant Group and Tenpay Connect, a subsidiary of Tencent, by the Central Bank of China can also be seen as a positive sign. The financial management department's focus has shifted from promoting centralized rectification of the financial business of platform companies to normalized supervision, indicating that the worse situation may be over [2].

On the outside side, expectations of the Fed's interest rate hike are heating up, so it is recommended to pay attention to the decisions of the US CPI and FOMC meetings in July.The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June FOMC meeting. Almost all officials think it will raise interest rates several times this year. This hawkish view has caused the market's expectations of interest rate hikes after July to heat up again. The 10-year US Treasury interest rate has once again broken through the 4% mark since March of this year. Furthermore, the latest economic and employment data released by the US shows that inflationary pressure still exists, and expectations for interest rate hikes in July have basically been determined. In June, the US ISM service sector PMI rose above expectations and recorded 53.9 (vs. May 50.3). The number of non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 209,000 in June, lower than the forecast of 230,000, but the wage growth rate exceeded market expectations. Also, US Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to China and the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Committee (PCAOB) once again reviewing more news and developments of Chinese securities companies are also worth paying close attention to.

Chart: The share of short selling on the 5-day moving average rose to over 17%

Specifically, the main logic underpinning our views and the factors we needed to focus on last week mainly include:

1) On July 6, the Premier of the State Council hosted a symposium of experts on the economic situation and will introduce a series of policies and measures for steady growth.Premier Li Qiang of the State Council pointed out that China is currently in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial upgrading. It is necessary to focus on playing a “combo punch” of good policies, introducing and quickly implementing a number of targeted, integrated, and highly collaborative policy measures around steady growth, stable employment, risk prevention, etc. Focusing on the top priority of high-quality development, greater efforts are being made to transform the mode, adjust the structure, and increase kinetic energy. By enhancing the interactivity of work to enhance the scientific nature of decision-making, establish and improve a normalized communication mechanism between the government and various types of enterprises, such as private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises [1].

2) The financial management department imposed penalties on institutions such as Ant Group, and the focus of work shifted from promoting centralized rectification of the financial business of platform enterprises to normalized supervision.On July 7, the financial administration imposed a fine of 7.123 billion yuan on Ant Group and its subsidiaries, demanding that Ant Group shut down the “Mutual Treasure” business carried out in violation of regulations and to compensate consumers for their interests in accordance with the law. Furthermore, in response to problems discovered during previous law enforcement inspections, the financial administration also recently imposed administrative penalties on the Postbank, Ping An Bank, People's Insurance Insurance, and Tenpay Connect. In the next step, the financial management department will implement financial policies and measures to promote the healthy development of the platform economy [2].

3) The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting “went wild,” and expectations of interest rate hikes are heating up again.According to the minutes of the June meeting released by the Federal Reserve, almost all Fed officials said at the June meeting that policy may be tightened further, although the rate of tightening will be slower than the rapid rate hike in monetary policy since the beginning of 2022. Of the 18 participants, all but 2 expect to raise interest rates at least once this year, while 12 expect to raise interest rates twice or more. The July interest rate hike has basically been decided [3].

4) The number of new non-farm payrolls in the US in June fell short of expectations, and wage growth was higher than expected.The US added 209,000 new non-farm payrolls in June, lower than the forecast of 230,000. There is a big discrepancy between the US non-agricultural data for June and the ADP employment report due to the different caliber. According to the US ADP employment report, the number of people employed in the US private sector increased by 497,000 after the seasonal adjustment in June, more than double the market forecast of 225,000. Furthermore, the US labor force participation rate in June was 62.6%, the same as the previous value, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.6% (3.7% in May); wage growth remained the same 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%, and 4.4% higher than market expectations of 4.2%. Structurally, employment is still dominated by service industries such as education and health, and the number of new jobs added to the construction industry has also remained high.

5) Liquidity: Overseas active funds diverted from overseas Chinese stock markets last week, and southbound capital continued to flow in.Specifically, data from EPFR shows that overseas active funds once again switched to an outflow of overseas Chinese stock markets last week, with an outflow of 231 million US dollars. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese investors increased their Hong Kong stock holdings by a total of HK$6.71 billion through Hong Kong Stock Connect last week.

Chart: Overseas active funds turned out of the overseas Chinese stock market last week

Investment advice

Although the “push is not enough to support the bottom” policy may correspond to the short-term “top and bottom” of the market, we believe that there are structural opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market, similar to the second half of 2019. In terms of configuration policies,We recommend that investors continue to participate in the opportunities brought about by market fluctuations or adopt a dumbbell allocation strategy.Focus on state-owned enterprises with high dividend potential (dividend cash flow) and high-quality growth sectors with better profits (operating cash flow, such as the Internet, software and hardware, and some healthcare sectors), and investment targets that benefit from future policy shifts by the Federal Reserve.

Focus on events

The Economic Work Conference of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee at the end of July; the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting; Sino-US relations.