该行指，用户对音乐付费习惯持续养成，公司音乐付费率、ARPPU持续大幅拉升，此外公司进行降本增效，利润稳固提升。该行预计23-25年公司净利润分别为57/68/77亿元(23-25年原预测值为43/49/56亿元，因音乐付费率、arppu提升速度超预期上调)，对应每股收益1.67/1.98/2.24元。采用SOTP估值，给予目标价至45.31港币(41.68人民币)，维持“买入”评级。According to Orient Securities Research Report, Tencent Music (01698) had revenue of 7.29 billion yuan in 23Q2, up 5.6% year on year and 4.1% month on month. 23Q2's gross profit margin was 34.3%, up 5.34 pp year on year and 1.2 pp month on month. The bank expects annual gross margin to rise above 35%. Mainly due to continued growth in member revenue and dilution of copyright costs. Q2 sales expenses were 211 million yuan (yoy -30.4%, qoq -0%). The main reason is that the company has optimized its overall promotion strategy and reduced the cost of user acquisition costs.
Group Q2MAU 590 million (yoy +0.2%, qoq +0.3%); MPU 100 million (yoy +20.2%, qoq +5.3%); ARPPU 9.7 yuan/month (yoy +0.1%, qoq +5.7%). User payment habits have developed significantly. The bank expects payment rates and ARPPU to continue to grow quarterly. The current payment rate has room to improve regardless of whether it is a video platform or an overseas music platform, Spotify.
According to the bank, users continue to develop music payment habits, and the company's music payment rate and ARPPU continue to rise sharply. In addition, the company has reduced costs and increased efficiency, and profits have steadily increased. The bank expects the company's net profit for 23-25 to be 57/68/7.7 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast value for 23-25 was 43/49/5.6 billion yuan, as the rate of increase in music payment rates and ARPPU exceeded expectations), corresponding to earnings of 1.67/1.98/2.24 yuan per share. Using SOTP valuation, a target price of 45.31 HKD (41.68 RMB) was given, maintaining the “buy” rating.
