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We Think Sobute New Materials (SHSE:603916) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

We Think Sobute New Materials (SHSE:603916) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

我们认为 Sobute New Materials(上海证券交易所代码:603916)的债务风险很大
Simply Wall St ·  2023/08/24 22:40

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd (SHSE:603916) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

传奇基金经理Li·Lu曾说过,最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。当你考察一家公司的风险有多大时,考虑它的资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业倒闭时,债务往往会涉及到它。重要的是索布特新材料有限公司(上海证券交易所:603916)确实背负着债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否让该公司面临风险。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务在什么时候是危险的?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

债务帮助企业,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是用新资本还是用自由现金流。如果情况真的变得很糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。然而,更常见(但代价仍然高昂)的情况是,一家公司必须以极低的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的股份,只是为了支撑其资产负债表。然而,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本投资于高回报率增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。在考虑一家公司的债务水平时,第一步是同时考虑其现金和债务。

View our latest analysis for Sobute New Materials

查看我们对索布特新材料的最新分析

What Is Sobute New Materials's Net Debt?

索布特新材料的净债务是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2023 Sobute New Materials had CN¥1.51b of debt, an increase on CN¥1.06b, over one year. On the flip side, it has CN¥902.0m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥609.8m.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2023年3月,索布特新材料的债务为15.1亿元人民币,比一年前增加了10.6亿元人民币。另一方面,它拥有9.02亿加元的现金,导致净债务约为6.098亿加元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SHSE:603916 Debt to Equity History August 25th 2023
上证综指:603916债转股历史2023年8月25日

A Look At Sobute New Materials' Liabilities

看索布特新材料的负债情况

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Sobute New Materials had liabilities of CN¥1.60b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.09b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥902.0m and CN¥2.89b worth of receivables due within a year. So it can boast CN¥1.11b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

从最近的资产负债表可以看到,索布特新材料有16.亿元人民币的负债在一年内到期,还有10.9亿元人民币的负债在一年内到期。另一方面,它有9.02亿加元的现金和28.9亿加元的应收账款在一年内到期。因此,它可以吹嘘自己的流动资产比总计负债。

It's good to see that Sobute New Materials has plenty of liquidity on its balance sheet, suggesting conservative management of liabilities. Due to its strong net asset position, it is not likely to face issues with its lenders.

很高兴看到索布特新材料的资产负债表上有充足的流动性,这表明其对负债的管理是保守的。由于其强大的净资产状况,它不太可能面临与贷款人的问题。

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我们使用两个主要比率来告知我们债务相对于收益的水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前收益(EBITDA),第二个是其息税前收益(EBIT)覆盖其利息支出(或简称利息覆盖)的多少倍。这样,我们既考虑了债务的绝对量,也考虑了为其支付的利率。

With net debt sitting at just 1.2 times EBITDA, Sobute New Materials is arguably pretty conservatively geared. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 7.9 times the interest expense over the last year. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Sobute New Materials if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 50% cut to EBIT over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Sobute New Materials can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

由于净债务仅为EBITDA的1.2倍,索布特新材料可以说是相当保守的杠杆率。这一观点得到了坚实的利息覆盖率的支持,去年息税前利润是利息支出的7.9倍。如果管理层不能防止去年息税前利润削减50%的情况重演,其适度的债务负担可能对索布特新材料至关重要。当一家公司看到盈利下滑时,它有时会发现与贷款人的关系变得糟糕。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。但最终,该业务未来的盈利能力将决定索布特新材料能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。所以,如果你关注未来,你可以看看这个免费显示分析师利润预测的报告。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Sobute New Materials recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

但我们的最后考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用账面利润来偿还债务;它需要冷硬现金。因此,我们总是检查EBIT中有多少转化为自由现金流。在过去的三年中,索布特新材料公司的自由现金流总额为负。在自由现金流为负的公司手中,债务通常更昂贵,风险也几乎总是更高。股东们应该希望情况有所改善。

Our View

我们的观点

Sobute New Materials's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example, its level of total liabilities is relatively strong. We think that Sobute New Materials's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Sobute New Materials , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

索布特新材料在息税前利润增长方面的挣扎让我们对其资产负债表的实力产生了怀疑,但我们考虑的其他数据点相对来说是可取的。例如,其总负债水平相对较强。综合考虑上述数据点,我们认为,索布特新材料的债务确实使其具有一定的风险。这不一定是一件坏事,因为杠杆可以提高股本回报率,但这是需要注意的。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是你关注的领域。然而,并非所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中--远非如此。我们已经确定了两个警告信号与索布特新材料合作,了解它们应该是您投资过程的一部分。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,关注那些没有净债务的公司往往更好。你可以访问我们的这类公司的特别名单(都有利润增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰写,具有概括性。我们仅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并不打算作为财务建议。它不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也没有考虑你的目标或你的财务状况。我们的目标是为您带来由基本面数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会将最新的对价格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考虑在内。Simply Wall St.对上述任何一只股票都没有持仓。

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