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Is Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000910) Trading At A 26% Discount?

Is Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000910) Trading At A 26% Discount?

Dare Power Dekor Home Co., Ltd.(深圳證券交易所代碼:000910)以 26% 的折扣交易?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/09/02 21:08

Key Insights

主要見解

  • The projected fair value for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd is CN¥11.32 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd's CN¥8.39 share price signals that it might be 26% undervalued
  • Our fair value estimate is 7.3% lower than Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd's analyst price target of CN¥12.21
  • 基於兩階段自由現金流轉股權,Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd的預計公允價值為11.32元
  • Dale Power Dekor HomeLtd 8.39元的股價暗示其價值可能被低估了26%
  • 我們的公允價值估計比Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd分析師目標價12.21元低7.3%

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000910) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

今天,我們將簡單介紹一種估值方法,該方法用於評估Dare Power Dekor Home Co.,Ltd.(SZSE:000910)作為投資機會的吸引力,方法是將該公司未來預測的現金流折現回今天的價值。為此,我們將利用貼現現金流(DCF)模型。這聽起來可能很複雜,但實際上很簡單!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

我們通常認為,一家公司的價值是它未來將產生的所有現金的現值。然而,貼現現金流只是眾多估值指標中的一個,它也並非沒有缺陷。對於那些熱衷於學習股票分析的人來說,這裡的Simply Wall St.分析模型可能會讓你感興趣。

Check out our latest analysis for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd

查看我們對Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd.的最新分析

The Method

該方法

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

我們使用的是兩階段增長模型,也就是說,我們考慮了公司發展的兩個階段。在初期,公司可能有較高的增長率,而第二階段通常被假設為有一個穩定的增長率。首先,我們必須對未來十年的現金流進行估計。由於沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們根據公司最近報告的價值推斷出了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設,自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩收縮速度,而自由現金流增長的公司在這段時間內的增長速度將放緩。我們這樣做是為了反映出,增長在最初幾年往往比後來幾年放緩得更多。

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

一般來說,我們假設今天的一美元比未來的一美元更有價值,所以這些未來現金流的總和就會貼現到今天的價值:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

10年自由現金流(Fcf)預測

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥518.2m CN¥491.4m CN¥478.1m CN¥473.4m CN¥474.4m CN¥479.5m CN¥487.4m CN¥497.4m CN¥509.2m CN¥522.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ -8.68% Est @ -5.17% Est @ -2.71% Est @ -0.99% Est @ 0.22% Est @ 1.06% Est @ 1.65% Est @ 2.07% Est @ 2.35% Est @ 2.56%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8% CN¥472 CN¥408 CN¥361 CN¥326 CN¥298 CN¥274 CN¥254 CN¥236 CN¥220 CN¥206
二零二四年 2025年年 二零二六年 2027年年 2028年年 2029年年 二0三0 2031年年 2032年年 2033年
槓桿FCF(CN元,百萬元) CN元5.182億元 淨額4.914億元 淨額4.781億元 淨額4.734億元 淨額4.744億元 CN元4.795億元 淨額4.874億元 淨額4.974億元 CN元5.092億元 CN元5.222億元
增長率預估來源 Est@-8.68% Est@-5.17% Est@-2.71% Est@-0.99% Est@0.22% Est@1.06% Est@1.65% Est@2.07% Est@2.35% Est@2.56%
現值(CN元,百萬)貼現@9.8% CN元472元 CN元408元 CN元361元 CN元326元 CN元298元 CN元274元 CN元254元 CN元236元 CN元220元 CN元206元

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥3.1b

(“美國東部時間”=Simply Wall St.預估的Fcf成長率)
10年期現金流現值(聚偏氟乙烯)=CN人民幣31億元

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.

我們現在需要計算終端價值,它說明瞭這十年之後的所有未來現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終端價值,其未來年增長率等於10年期政府債券收益率3.0%的5年平均水準。我們以9.8%的權益成本將終端現金流貼現到今天的價值。

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥522m× (1 + 3.0%) ÷ (9.8%– 3.0%) = CN¥8.0b

終端值(電視)=FCF2033年×(1+g)?(r-g)=CN元522M×(1+3.0%)?(9.8%-3.0%)=CN元8.0B

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥8.0b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)10= CN¥3.1b

終值現值(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN元8.0億?(1+9.8%)10=CN人民幣31億元

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥6.2b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥8.4, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 26% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

總價值是未來十年的現金流總和加上貼現的終端價值,得出總股權價值,在本例中為人民幣62億元。為了得到每股內在價值,我們將其除以總流通股數量。與目前8.4元的股價相比,該公司的股價似乎略有低估,較目前的股價有26%的折讓。不過,請記住,這只是一個大致的估值,就像任何複雜的公式一樣--垃圾輸入,垃圾輸出。

dcf
SZSE:000910 Discounted Cash Flow September 3rd 2023
深圳證券交易所:000910貼現現金流2023年9月3日

The Assumptions

假設

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.111. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

我們要指出,貼現現金流最重要的投入是貼現率,當然還有實際現金流。您不必同意這些輸入,我建議您自己重新計算並使用它們。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮一家公司未來的資本要求,因此它沒有給出一家公司潛在業績的全貌。鑑於我們將Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd視為潛在股東,股權成本被用作貼現率,而不是佔債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在這個計算中,我們使用了9.8%,這是基於槓桿率為1.111的測試值。貝塔係數是衡量一隻股票相對於整個市場的波動性的指標。我們的貝塔係數來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔係數,強制限制在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定業務的合理範圍。

SWOT Analysis for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd

Dare Power Dekor家居有限公司的SWOT分析

Strength
強度
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • 債務不被視為一種風險。
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
  • 股息由收益和現金流支付。
  • Dividend information for 000910.
  • 000910年度股息資訊。
Weakness
軟肋
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • 在過去的一年裡,公司的收益有所下降。
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Building market.
  • 與建築市場前25%的股息支付者相比,股息很低。
Opportunity
機會
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • 預計未來三年的年收入將會增長。
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
  • 基於本益比和估計公允價值的良好價值。
Threat
威脅
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
  • 預計該公司的年度收益增速將低於中國市場。
  • What else are analysts forecasting for 000910?
  • 分析師們對000910的預測還包括什麼?

Moving On:

下一步:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd, we've put together three further items you should further examine:

就構建你的投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,理想情況下,它不會是你為一家公司仔細審查的唯一分析。用貼現現金流模型不可能獲得萬無一失的估值。相反,貼現現金流模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果終端價值增長率稍有調整,可能會極大地改變整體結果。股價低於內在價值的原因是什麼?對於Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd,我們又整理了三個你應該進一步研究的專案:

  1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 000910's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 風險例如,我們發現Dare Power Dekor HomeLtd的1個警告標誌在這裡投資之前你應該意識到這一點。
  2. 未來收益:000910‘S的增長率與同行和更廣泛的市場相比如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,更深入地挖掘分析師對未來幾年的共識數位。
  3. 其他穩固的企業:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去業績是強勁業務的基礎。為什麼不探索我們具有堅實商業基本面的股票的互動列表,看看是否有其他您可能沒有考慮過的公司!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

PS.Simply Wall St.每天更新其針對每隻中國股票的貼現現金流計算,所以如果你想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,只需蒐索此處。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有什麼反饋嗎?擔心內容嗎? 保持聯繫直接與我們聯繫.或者,也可以給編輯組發電子郵件,地址是暗示Wallst.com。
本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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