Why Disney's 'Melting Iceberg' ESPN Is Unlikely To Attract Apple As Buyer: Analyst Breaks It Down
Why Disney's 'Melting Iceberg' ESPN Is Unlikely To Attract Apple As Buyer: Analyst Breaks It Down
$Disney (DIS.US)$ is amid a restructuring exercise as it faces fundamental challenges and there are rumors adrift that the company might offload its ESPN cable sports channel.
$迪士尼 (DIS.US)$ 正在進行重組，因爲它面臨着根本性的挑戰，而且有傳言稱該公司可能會轉移其ESPN有線體育頻道。
An analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets weighed in on the value ESPN has for Disney.
KeyBanc Capital Markets的一位分析師權衡了ESPN對迪士尼的價值。
Muted Expectations: ESPN is a "melting iceberg," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel. Its valuation could be currently at $30 billion, assuming nine times the valuation multiple of the estimated EBITDA estimate for 2024. The fair value range is at $28 billion to $36 billion, he said.
低調的期望： KeyBanc Capital Markets分析師布蘭登·尼斯佩爾表示，ESPN是一座 “融化的冰山”。假設其估值是2024年估計息稅折舊攤銷前利潤估計值的九倍，其估值目前可能爲300億美元。他說，公允價值區間爲280億至360億美元。
The analyst estimates ESPN's revenue to be $16 billion, and expects it to have a low-single-digit revenue growth profile. Much of the growth will likely come from the direct-to-consumer business as linear revenues are tracing a downward trajectory, he said.
這位分析師估計，ESPN的收入爲160億美元，並預計其收入增長將達到較低的個位數。他說，由於線性收入呈下降趨勢，大部分增長可能來自直接面向消費者的業務。
Assuming $10.1 billion in programming and production costs for ESPN in fiscal year 2023, ESPN's operating income margins will likely be in the low 20%, he added.
他補充說，假設ESPN在2023財年的節目和製作成本爲101億美元，那麼ESPN的營業收入利潤率可能會處於20％的低水平。
"We view the value of ESPN as likely below the consensus, which is just one of the five reasons we are cautious on DIS," the analyst said.
這位分析師表示：“我們認爲ESPN的價值可能低於共識，這只是我們對DIS持謹慎態度的五個原因之一。”
ESPN's fundamental outlook is negative and could materially worsen if $Charter Communications (CHTR.US)$distribution agreement isn't renewed, Nispel said.
ESPN的基本面前景是負面的，如果出現以下情況可能會大幅惡化 $特許通訊 (CHTR.US)$尼斯佩爾說，分銷協議沒有續簽。
"The opportunity for ESPN in streaming means price increases are coming, which will challenge scale," he added.
他補充說：“ESPN在直播領域的機會意味着價格上漲即將到來，這將挑戰規模。”
Patience Is Virtue: KeyBanc said it is unlikely that $Apple (AAPL.US)$ will buy ESPN. "While some believe ESPN could be worth $50B and AAPL is likely an acquirer, we don't believe it is likely AAPL will acquire the business when valuations may be coming down in the future," it said.
耐心就是美德： KeyBanc 表示，這種可能性不大 $蘋果 (AAPL.US)$ 會收購 ESPN。它說：“儘管有些人認爲ESPN的市值可能爲500億美元，而AAPL很可能是收購方，但我們認爲AAPL在未來估值可能下降時不太可能收購該業務。”
Patience, according to Nispel, is the best transaction strategy, given ESPN is a renter of content and rents continue to increase more quickly than Disney.
根據尼斯佩爾的說法，耐心是最好的交易策略，因爲ESPN是內容的租賃者，租金的增長速度繼續快於迪士尼。
2 Near-Term Events: The analyst sees Disney re-segmenting and breaking out ESPN from Disney entertainment and the company's Investor Summit focused on Disney Parks, Experiences and Products as two notable events for Disney in the near term.
2 近期事件： 這位分析師認爲，迪士尼重新細分ESPN並將其從迪士尼娛樂公司中脫穎而出，以及該公司以迪士尼樂園、體驗和產品爲重點的投資者峯會是迪士尼在短期內的兩項值得注意的活動。
"We view neither event as a positive catalyst for shares," he said.
他說：“我們認爲這兩個事件都不是股票的積極催化劑。”
KeyBanc has a Sector Weight rating for Disney shares.
KeyBanc對迪士尼股票進行行業權重評級。