• Video
  • US Producer Prices, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Rise

US Producer Prices, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Rise

Show Transcript
Bloomberg Sep 14, 2023 14:03 · 14k Views

The producer price index for final demand increased by 0.7% from a month earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The value of total retail purchases increased 0.6% from July following a downward revision to the prior month’s surge, Commerce Department data showed. Mike McKee reports on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more

Transcript

  • 00:00 Well, let's forget about Christine Lagarde and what she thinks for a few minutes and think about what the market thinks Jay Powell will think.
  • 00:05 With retail sales up 6/10 of a percent on the month of August, that is significantly higher
  • 00:12 than the 10th of a percent that was forecast X autos up 6/10
  • 00:17 and the retail sales control group
  • 00:20 waiting on that one to come in here.
  • 00:22 Hold on just a second.
  • 00:23 That's being calculated as we speak.
  • 00:25 Couple of other numbers
  • 00:27 continue.
  • 00:28 Initial jobless claims
  • 00:29 220,000.
  • 00:32 Now we don't know what the revision is yet.
  • 00:34 It was 216 last week, but it does tell you that we're still in a very low
  • 00:39 claims environment.
  • 00:40 Continuing claims are at 1,688,000.
  • 00:44 PPI has just come in as well.
  • 00:47 PPI for final demand up 7/10 of a percent, that's a significant increase over the 3/10 the prior month
  • 00:53 and 4/10 expected.
  • 00:54 If you look at the core, which we look at as X food, energy and trade services, that's up 3/10
  • 01:01 compared with a 2/10 rise last time.
  • 01:03 So we are seeing some inflation pressures at the
  • 01:07 basic
  • 01:09 the level of the wholesaler.
  • 01:11 So we are seeing some problems with inflation.
  • 01:13 But retail sales
  • 01:15 so far not being
  • 01:18 affected.
  • 01:18 Retail sales control up a 10th of 8%.
  • 01:22 That is a lot less than the 1% last month, but it's better than the 110th
  • 01:26 percent decline that was forecast.
  • 01:28 So retail sales strong.
  • 01:29 Jobless claims
  • 01:30 are weak, which could be
  • 01:33 translated as strong.
  • 01:34 And PPI does show some inflation pressures.
  • 01:37 Big upside surprise
  • 01:38 on retail sales
  • 01:40 and an upside surprise on PPI and both of those attributable to oil.
  • 01:44 You guys nailed it at about
  • 01:45 8:28 this morning just before we got the data.
  • 01:48 Oil prices driving this up,
  • 01:50 the gasoline station sales up 5.2% in the month of August compared to just a 10th of 8% in the month of July.
  • 01:58 We did see in retail sales a number of things that point to
  • 02:02 pretty much normality, including a 9/10 rise for the second month in a row in clothing
  • 02:07 and a 5/10 rise in health and personal care.
  • 02:10 So people got their haircut,
  • 02:11 they bought new school clothes, It was a typical back to school season.
  • 02:16 The other thing in PPI
  • 02:17 it's a 2% rise in the price of goods, which the Labor Department attributes to oil prices.
  • 02:24 60% of that rise
  • 02:26 to oil prices.
  • 02:27 So PPI being pushed up by oil and so are jobs.
  • 02:31 So are retail sales.
  • 02:33 Rather the jobs numbers 220
  • 02:35 for jobless claims last week revised to 2:17.
  • 02:39 So
  • 02:39 a slight rise but still historically low.
  • 02:42 So at this point
  • 02:43 it is hard to see
  • 02:44 a lot of bad news other than energy in these reports this morning.