CICC released a research report saying that to maintain Nine Dragons Paper (02689) "outperform industry" rating, FY24-25 profit forecast of 2.5 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan unchanged, the target price of 6.30 Hong Kong dollars. The company's FY23 realized income of 56.7 billion yuan (year-on-year-12%) and net profit of-2.4 billion yuan (3.3 billion yuan in the same period last year); single 2HFY23 realized income of 25.5 billion yuan and net profit of-995 million yuan (1HFY23 was-1.4 billion yuan; 500 million yuan in the same period last year), which was lower than the bank and market expectations.
According to the report, as the industry enters the 3Q seasonal peak season and the downstream enters the replenishment stage, the order acceptance situation of the paper mill picks up slightly and starts the "small step slow rise" stage, and the paper mill inventory is slightly removed. Since September, there has been no obvious accumulation of inventory, and the paper mill has accelerated the pace of rise. Taking Jiulong Dongguan base as an example, incomplete statistics show that 3Q23YTD issued seven rounds of price increases (a total of 300yuan / ton +). According to the bank's research, most of the current mid-and low-end prices are on the ground, and there is a little pressure on mid-and high-end products. On the supply side, taking into account the concentration of new supply (for example, the sun has landed 1 million tons from August to September, and there are still other production capacity of more than 1 million tons to be put into operation during the year), the overall earnings and stock price repair of the industry may be weaker than the previous two cycles.
The bank quoted the company's announcement that as of June 2023, the company had a production capacity of ~ 24.6 million tons (including paper and pulp, the same below), an increase of 25% over the same period last year. The company estimates that the production capacity of FY24 will reach 30.9 million tons, which is + 10% and + 26% respectively compared with the current. The company took the initiative to slow down the progress of some base construction, including papermaking (1.2 million tons of white cardboard, 300000 tons of corrugated paper, 200000 tons of paper bags of Kraft paper), wood pulp (chemical pulp-chemical machine pulp), overseas wood fiber, the latest guidelines FY24 capital expenditure ~ 13 billion yuan (significantly lower than the previous guidelines) The company announced that as of the end of FY23, the syndicated capital reserve is sufficient, the unwithdrawn bank credit line is 55.2 billion yuan, at the same time cash on hand ~ 10.3 billion yuan, the balance sheet can be controlled.