G & M Holdings Limited (HKG:6038) announced strong profits, but the stock was stagnant. We did some digging, and we found some concerning factors in the details.
See our latest analysis for G & M Holdings
Examining Cashflow Against G & M Holdings' Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
For the year to June 2023, G & M Holdings had an accrual ratio of 0.47. That means it didn't generate anywhere near enough free cash flow to match its profit. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of HK$792k, which is significantly less than its profit of HK$46.4m. G & M Holdings shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of G & M Holdings.
Our Take On G & M Holdings' Profit Performance
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that G & M Holdings didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. As a result, we think it may well be the case that G & M Holdings' underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you'd like to know more about G & M Holdings as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. When we did our research, we found 3 warning signs for G & M Holdings (1 is a bit concerning!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of G & M Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
