Shareholders appeared unconcerned with Blue Moon Group Holdings Limited's (HKG:6993) lackluster earnings report last week. Our analysis suggests that while the profits are soft, the foundations of the business are strong.
View our latest analysis for Blue Moon Group Holdings
A Closer Look At Blue Moon Group Holdings' Earnings
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Blue Moon Group Holdings has an accrual ratio of -0.25 for the year to June 2023. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of HK$1.2b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of HK$592.8m. Blue Moon Group Holdings shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Blue Moon Group Holdings' Profit Performance
Happily for shareholders, Blue Moon Group Holdings produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Blue Moon Group Holdings' statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! On the other hand, its EPS actually shrunk in the last twelve months. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Blue Moon Group Holdings at this point in time. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Blue Moon Group Holdings and we think they deserve your attention.
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Blue Moon Group Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.