“负利率和YCC不会在10月份结束，因为它们与2%的通胀目标有关，而这一目标尚未实现，”门间一夫说，“但根据长期收益率调整政策存在一定程度的自由。”Kazuo Momma, a former head of monetary policy at the BoJ, said on Friday that BoJ board members were likely to discuss whether to adjust the forward guidance and yield curve control (YCC) mechanism when they meet later this month.
"Japan's long-term yield has risen to 0.8%," the current Mizuho Research Technology economist said in an interview. Even if it is not trapped in the 1% upper limit, if there is more upward pressure in the future, whether the current ceiling is reasonable will be a topic of discussion. "
In terms of possible measures, the BoJ may raise its daily fixed-rate operation from 1 per cent, or raise the target rate for 10-year bond yields to 0.25 per cent, while also pushing up the ceiling, Mr Meiji said.
"negative interest rates and YCC will not end in October because they are related to the 2 per cent inflation target, which has not yet been achieved," he said. "but there is a degree of freedom to adjust policy according to long-term yields."
The Bank of Japan may also adjust its forward-looking policy guidance to cancel its commitment to "do not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary", said Mr. Meme, who also served as chief economist of the Bank of Japan during his tenure.
"in the current economic conditions, the chances of any necessary extra easing are very slim," the man said. "I think they can reduce their language, and they will probably consider doing so."
However, the man in the door does not think that these changes in YCC and forward guidance are his basic predictions for the next meeting, which ends on October 31st. Momma, who left the BoJ in 2016, said that while the BoJ was likely to raise inflation expectations again in its latest outlook report, its main message would be that it was not confident enough that the inflation target was finally at hand.
He said that if the preliminary results of spring wage negotiations in March showed continued strong wage growth, April would be the most likely time for the BoJ to end negative interest rates, when it would be logical for the central bank board to end both YCC and zero interest rates.
