Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guojin Securities released a research report sayingUnder the support of the marginal cost of acetic acid industry, the profit space of acetic acid has a certain support, and cost control is the key.The industrial chain layout of acetic acid is different at home and abroad. Coal-methanol / CO-- acetic acid is the main industrial chain in China. A series of factors such as cost control, raw material consumption, stable operation and so on will affect the cost. In the future capacity digestion needs time stage, can form effective cost control in the production process of production enterprises will be expected to relative benefits, it is recommended to pay attention to Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH). The company now has an acetic acid design capacity of 500000 tons and a production capacity of 1 million tons. With the advantage of low cost, it will obtain a relatively stable basic profit margin. If the supply appears phased force majeure or strong demand support, it is expected to greatly improve the profitability elasticity.

The main points of ▍ Guojin Securities are as follows:

The acetic acid industry has a lot of new production capacity in the long run, which takes time to digest, but there is no need to be too pessimistic:

The existing production capacity of ① acetic acid industry is about 11 million tons, and the planned new production capacity is more than 8 million tons, which generally causes great concern about the new supply of the industry, but from the rhythm of production, more than half of the new capacity can really be expanded until 2026 and beyond, and there are still many uncertainties in the planned capacity to the final landing, the industry supply does increase, but the time period is relatively long. ② acetic acid is located in a relatively long industrial chain, not all enterprises have realized the source layout of the industrial chain, and there is still a certain gap in production costs within the industry.

Most of the production enterprises of ③ new acetic acid production capacity have made supporting plans for downstream products, and the digestion of downstream products may affect the start of the industrial chain as a whole, and some of the new capacity may not form a full-load supply; there is still a large gap in cost management and control of ④ acetic acid production enterprises, and there is a layout of foreign-funded enterprises in the industry, and the cost difference will build a profit cushion for low-cost enterprises.

The pattern of acetic acid industry is relatively good, and the profit space at the bottom of the industry is supported.

Compared with other bulk product industries, the concentration of acetic acid in the global and domestic market is relatively good. The proportion of CR5 reaches 61.7%. The head enterprises have formed a better scale advantage, and about 17 enterprises participate in the layout as a whole. After years of development, the industry is relatively mature and the regional distribution is more uniform, so the industry rarely has a state of low-price market competition, generally under normal demand support. The industry can conduct cost transmission effectively and maintain a good profit space above the cost.

In the case of insufficient demand support, the industry will also periodically adjust the supply by means of adjustment and maintenance to maintain the market order; at the same time, it will also benefit from the high overseas concentration, if the device has force majeure, although the export proportion of acetic acid is about 1-20%, the linkage effect will also provide better elastic space for acetic acid.

Refining and chemical enterprises have become new players in the industry, and the industrial chain is self-sufficient, and the pressure on the circulation market may increase slightly after 2026.

After the reform of the self-supply side of acetic acid, there is only one new entrant in the industry, and the industry is mainly based on existing enterprises to expand capacity, and the pattern is relatively stable. However, several refining and chemical production enterprises began to enter the layout, forming their own raw material self-supply and downstream EVA industry chain supporting, which will bring new changes to the industry. The reduction of solvent outsourcing required by refining and chemical PTA may bring pressure on capacity digestion to the circulation market after 2026.

The downstream matching of vinyl acetate has increased significantly, the capacity digestion takes time, and the late production rhythm still needs to be followed up continuously.

Some of the newly entered acetic acid production enterprises are mainly the integrated layout of the industrial chain, and most of them extend to the downstream EVA field. According to the current situation, there is a significant increase in the number of enterprises in the layout of vinyl acetate and its downstream EVA, and the enterprises within the industry are carrying out capacity expansion. At the same time, there are more new entrants to participate in the layout. It is estimated that it will take time to digest the capacity of the acetic acid and downstream vinyl acetate industry chain. The pace of production of enterprises with long-term planning for new capacity still needs to be observed.

Risk hint

The risk of policy change, the risk of substantial expansion of new production capacity, the risk of demand falling short of expectations, the risk of product export fluctuation, the risk of raw material fluctuation, and so on.