站在行业的角度，随着数十个城市宽松政策的出台，部分积压需求和新增需求陆续释放，因此9月出现了整体降幅收窄的基本面，但从结构上看，认房不认贷、放松限购、降低首付比例等政策对于一二线城市的效果要显著更大，从而导致政策带来的回暖在三四线城市表现较弱，同理可推演至以三四线下沉市场为发展重心的房企。Zhitong Financial APP learned, Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that China overseas Hongyang (00081) "overweight" rating. The company's cumulative sales rose 17% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2023, but monthly sales fell slightly in September. In the third quarter, the total contract sales area was 2.863 million, with a contract sales amount of 34.45 billion yuan (RMB, the same below); in September, the company's contract sales area was 263000, and the contract sales amount was 3.11 billion yuan.
The main points of Everbright Securities are as follows:
The company focuses on the sinking market, while the boost effect of demand-side easing in the industry is weak in third-and fourth-tier cities, which may be the main reason for the divergence between the company's September sales performance and the overall trend of the industry.
From the point of view of the industry, with the introduction of loose policies in dozens of cities, some of the backlog and new demand have been released one after another, so the overall decline narrowed in September, but structurally, policies such as denying housing loans, relaxing purchase restrictions and reducing the down payment ratio have a significantly greater effect on first-and second-tier cities, resulting in a weaker recovery in third-and fourth-tier cities. By the same token, it can be deduced to the housing enterprises with the sinking market of the third and fourth lines as the focus of development.
Take the land actively, and the key cities will continue to make in-depth layout.
In September, the company added 2 new land reserves in Hohhot and Quanzhou respectively, adding 144000 square meters of land area and 379000 square meters of floor area, corresponding to a total land price of 1.88 billion yuan. Considering that the company already has land reserves in the above cities, this land acquisition further clarifies the development plan that the company hopes to continue ploughing in the above cities, which is also related to the good performance of the company's projects in the above cities in the past.
The average sales price continues to rise, continue to develop the third and fourth line of the high-end market, enhance the company's brand strength.
In the first three quarters of 2023, the average contract sales price of the company was 12034 yuan per square meter, and the unit price of new land was 5552 yuan per square meter, up 11% and 30% respectively compared with the average price for the whole year of 2022. The company is making efforts in the middle and high-end markets.
Risk Tips:House prices and demand have declined substantially, and the entry of other brands of central enterprises into the low-level market has worsened the market competition pattern.