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The One-year Decline in Earnings Might Be Taking Its Toll on Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd (SHSE:600572) Shareholders as Stock Falls 5.0% Over the Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 19, 2023 00:40

If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the Zhejiang CONBA Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:600572) share price is 23% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market decline of around 6.4% (not including dividends) in the same period. If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! Zooming out, the stock is actually down 3.2% in the last three years.

Although Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd has shed CN¥694m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the last twelve months, Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd actually shrank its EPS by 66%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Revenue was pretty stable on last year, so deeper research might be needed to explain the share price rise.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:600572 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 19th 2023

It is of course excellent to see how Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd, it has a TSR of 25% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 25% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 2% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd you should know about.

Of course Zhejiang CONBA PharmaceuticalLtd may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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