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这是踩踏了吗?

Is this a stampede?

Gelonghui Finance ·  Oct 19, 2023 12:21

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Today's A-shares are extremely popular. The three major indices all fell by more than 1%. Among them, the Shanghai Index fell below the previous low of 3053 points in line with market predictions, and closed at 3005.39 points.It's been 16 years, and I don't know how many times it is the first time that A-share shareholders have started a 3,000-point defense battle.Northbound capital sold 11.7 billion yuan today.

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China and the US, which have diverged from their economic cycles, have never been so consistent.Every stock market kills a white horse stock in a day, leaving only shareholders in chaos.

In terms of US stocks, the “Big Seven” are in line at the helm.Nvidia's market value had just evaporated by 400 billion yuan. The next day, Tesla's market value evaporated 280 billion yuan overnight, and Morgan Stanley also plummeted 6%.

The A-share side would have killed Hakuba even earlier.Muyuan Co., Ltd. plummeted 7.6% last Monday, Haitian flavor industry plummeted 7.89% this Monday, and Pianzai on Tuesday plummeted 5%.Today, the White Horse Stew was also staged. As soon as the market opened, it was actually Kweichow Moutai's turn to plummet by 5%. The market value evaporated 123 billion yuan in a single day, Muyuan shares closed down 8%, and many of China's Ping An's weighted stocks fell.

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Maotai is the “guiding principle” for A-shares, ah, what actually happened?

1

The A-share weather vane has been knocked down

It is now the A-share shareholder's turn to kill Hakuba. As soon as the market opened today, Kweichow Moutai dropped by nearly 4%, then the decline widened further.

The reason for the collapse of the stock market this time was the same as that of Haitian Taste Industry. It's a proper ghost story. Last night, rumors began to circulate in the market about Kweichow Moutai's quarterly performance decelerating, and Q4 growth would decline to 10%.

It's easy to understand if it's rumored that Q3 performance is slowing down. After all, the third quarter report will be published this Saturday, and there are only a few days left until the fourth quarter. How can you tell that the fourth quarter results are not working?

In response, Kweichow Moutai staff said:“You definitely can't believe the rumors (the growth rate declined in the third quarter). The company's third quarterly report will soon be published, and the company's news must prevail. The decline in stock prices also has nothing to do with the inspection. Currently, we have been paying attention to the stock price issue and are also looking for the reason. If an announcement is needed, the company will issue a relevant announcement.”

What's funny is that Maotai's director just sold his company worth owning; the next day, Maotai plummeted 5%.On October 18, Jiang Yan, director of Kweichow Moutai, saidA high-quality sauce-flavored wine company like Maotai took decades of settlement to come out; it's not something you can do by throwing money away. We attach great importance to the sustainable value of all parties involved. Maotai is worthy of recognition, anticipation, and ownership.

However, there must be a reason for the wind coming out of nowhere.Luxury giant LV's revenue for the third fiscal quarter only increased 9% year-on-year. Compared with the 17% revenue increase in the first and second quarters, the growth rate in the third quarter was almost at a low level. LV's position as the second-richest person in the world even fell to third place on Monday.

As a luxury product with Chinese characteristics, Maotai can beat other luxury brands around the world with a gross profit margin of 90%. From 2018 to 222, the gross sales profit of Hermès and LVMH fell in the 60%-70% range.

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Everyone is worried that Kweichow Moutai's performance in the third quarter may not be good either. Plus, Maotai has recently been doing cross-border co-branding all over the place. There seems to be a bit of a hurry about what kind of Maotai coffee and alcohol chocolate are there.

Also, judging from the price trends of Flying Maotai, which the market is concerned about, the prices of some Maotai products weakened after the holiday season.The wholesale price of a loose bottle of Flying Maotai for the week of October 15 fell 65 yuan from 2,730 yuan on October 1, while the wholesale price of a full box of Flying Maotai fell by 20 yuan.

However, in the past two years, the price of Maotai liquor has mostly been on a downward trend after the holiday season.The market is optimistic about the peak season for the fourth quarter. As we gradually enter the peak stocking season in Maotai starting in November, flying prices are expected to pick up.

From an investment perspective, as the ballast stone of A-shares, Maotai ranked first in the fund's heavy-traded stocks.The flash crash shows that the most calm people in this market can't hold on.

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(The content of this article is a list of objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice)

Judging from historical experience, in the past, when Maotai continued to plummet, the market often thought that sentiment had been suppressed to the extreme, saving momentum for a rebound.

Looking back at data on Maotai's sharp decline in the past three years, I found that Maotai had three sharp falls in October last year, and then A-shares began a wave of rebound. Will it be the same this time around?

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2

High US interest rates hinder A-shares

As many A-shares and Whitehorse stocks fell today, Kweichow Moutai fell more than 5.6%. Weighted stocks such as ICBC, CNPC, China Life Insurance, and Ping An of China were sluggish, dragging down the SSE 50 Index by 2.65%.

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The previous article mentioned that capital seems to be once again favoring the broad-market blue-chip index.The shares of the eight ETFs tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index increased by a total of 3.458 billion shares in the first three quarters of this year, of which only increased by 72 million shares in September.

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However, just last week, the shares of Huaxia Fund's SSE 50 ETF and SSE 50 ETF Yi Fangda increased by a total of 841 million shares. Does this mean a change in capital attitude?

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Looking at the global stock market, today it's actually not just A-shares that have plummeted.At the “anchor of global asset pricing,” the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose overnight to 4.968%, a new high since July 2007.The wave of sell-off in US stocks spread to the Asian market. The major indices of Hong Kong stocks all fell 2%, the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.9%, and South Korean stocks fell nearly 2%.

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According to the pricing model for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index calculated by teacher Canghai Yitogu's team, the downturn in the domestic economy can explain 27% of the decline in A-shares, but overseas liquidity can explain 73%.

Furthermore, the latest economic data released by the Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that the GDP growth rate for the first three quarters exceeded expectations, and various data segments, such as zero fixed investment, and the unemployment rate, all improved markedly.

The key point now depends on when overseas liquidity, which is the biggest obstacle to A-shares, can improve.Although many Fed officials have been loud recently, hinting that interest rate hikes will be suspended, wait for the situation to become clearer before deciding on the interest rate path.Is it just how many 25 basis points really that important?

The key point is “HIGHTER FOR PROTECTION”. The risk-free interest rate of the US dollar is at 5%. If you think with your toes, you know in droves that global capital will adopt arbitrage transactions based on interest spreads and exchange rate differences. Plus, we are still in a cycle of interest rate cuts. How can northbound capital not run away?

As of October 19, Northbound Capital had net sales of 35.54 billion yuan in October, leaving only 67.232 billion yuan in net purchases during the year.The last time Northbound sold net during the year was in 2015, with net sales of 439 million yuan, the only net sales year so far.

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3

SZSE 50 hits, reported online by E-Fangda and Fuguo

In addition to the classic SSE 50 Index, now the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also has its own SZSE 50 Index.On October 18, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange released the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 50 Index. That night, Yi Fangda and Wells Fargo Fund reported ETF product applications to track the index, which can be described as a quick report.

According to the website of the Securities Regulatory Commission, the SZSE 50 ETF related products reported by Yi Fangda and Wells Fargo Fund are already in the “acceptance of materials” status. Judging from the cleverness of products such as the China Securities 2000 ETF and the Science Innovation 100 ETF this year and the speed with which they were approved for distribution, these two products may soon be sold in wholesale distribution.

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The market now benchmarks the SZSE 50 Index against the SSE 50 Index.First, looking at constituent stocks, the leading market attributes and investment function positioning of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 50 can indeed be compared to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index. However, compared to the SSE 50 Index, which focuses on traditional sectors such as finance and real estate, the SSE 50 Index focuses on information technology, optional consumption, and industry, gathers leaders in emerging industries, and has distinctive characteristics of innovation and growth.

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In addition, the Shenzhen Securities 50 Index uses 3 more 'characteristic' compilation factors, that is, excluding stocks with lower turnover and lower ESG ratings, and selecting enterprises with special advantages in different industries in Shenzhen, using 'corporate governance' as the final sample indicator.

Pang Yaping, general manager of the Index Research Department of Yifangda Fund, said,The Shenzhen Stock Exchange 50 Index reflects the stock price trends of leading companies with large market capitalization, strong industry representation, and good corporate governance in the Shenzhen market. The index covers many industry-representative core leading listed companies. The industry coverage is balanced and comprehensive, and can better reflect the dynamic changes in China's economic and industrial structure.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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