The Henan Rebecca Hair Products Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600439) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 30% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Henan Rebecca Hair Products' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 3.1x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's Personal Products industry is similar at about 3.8x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
See our latest analysis for Henan Rebecca Hair Products
What Does Henan Rebecca Hair Products' Recent Performance Look Like?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Henan Rebecca Hair Products over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Henan Rebecca Hair Products' earnings, revenue and cash flow.How Is Henan Rebecca Hair Products' Revenue Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Henan Rebecca Hair Products' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 19%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 10.0% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 24% shows it's an unpleasant look.
In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Henan Rebecca Hair Products' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Henan Rebecca Hair Products' P/S?
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Henan Rebecca Hair Products' P/S is back within range of the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
The fact that Henan Rebecca Hair Products currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Henan Rebecca Hair Products (at least 2 which shouldn't be ignored), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're unsure about the strength of Henan Rebecca Hair Products' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.