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The Five-year Decline in Earnings Might Be Taking Its Toll on China Aerospace Times Electronics (SHSE:600879) Shareholders as Stock Falls 4.3% Over the Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 21, 2023 20:04

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. But more than that, you probably want to see it rise more than the market average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the China Aerospace Times Electronics CO., LTD. (SHSE:600879) share price is up 24% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 12%.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.3%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

See our latest analysis for China Aerospace Times Electronics

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

China Aerospace Times Electronics' earnings per share are down 0.5% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

Since EPS is down a bit, and the share price is up, it's probably that the market previously had some concerns about the company, but the reality has been better than feared. In the long term, though, it will be hard for the share price rises to continue without improving EPS.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:600879 Earnings Per Share Growth October 22nd 2023

We know that China Aerospace Times Electronics has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for China Aerospace Times Electronics the TSR over the last 5 years was 26%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that China Aerospace Times Electronics shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Aerospace Times Electronics better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that China Aerospace Times Electronics is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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