2.1% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for CITIC (HKG:267) Shareholders Over That Period
2.1% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for CITIC (HKG:267) Shareholders Over That Period
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in CITIC Limited (HKG:267), since the last five years saw the share price fall 42%. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 8.3% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.
理想情况下,您的整体投资组合应当超越市场平均水平。但每位投资者几乎肯定会有表现优秀和表现不佳的股票。此时一些股东可能正在质疑他们在中信股份(adr) (HKG:267) 的投资,因为过去五年看到股价下跌了42%。此外,在大约一个季度中跌了18%。这对持有者来说并不是一件开心的事。当然,这种股价走势很可能受到整个市场下跌8.3% 的影响。
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
考虑到过去一周对股东来说是艰难的,让我们调查一下基本面并看看我们能学到什么。
View our latest analysis for CITIC
查看我们对中信股份(adr) 最新的分析报告
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话:短期内市场是一个投票机,但长期来看它是一个称重机。评估公司周边环境的情绪变化的一种有缺陷但合理的方法是将每股收益(EPS)与股价进行比较。
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, CITIC actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 11% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
在不幸的半个十年中,股价下滑,中信实际上看到其每股收益(EPS) 每年提高11%。考虑到股价的反应,人们可能会怀疑EPS 不是该时期业绩的良好指标(可能由于一次性损失或收益)。或者可能市场此前非常乐观,因此股票尽管EPS 改善,但仍然令人失望。
Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.
由于每股收益增长与股价下跌之间缺乏相关性,值得关注其他指标来尝试了解股价的走势。
The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.
我们喜欢看到内部人士在过去12个月里一直在买入股票。话虽如此,大多数人认为收益和营收增长趋势对业务的指导更具有意义。如果你考虑购买或出售新加坡交易所的股票,你应该查看这篇免费的报告,显示分析师的利润预测。
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
下面的图表显示了收益和营收随时间的变化情况(通过单击图像揭示确切的值)。
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think CITIC will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
可能值得注意的是,该CEO的薪酬低于类似规模公司的中位数。但尽管CEO的薪酬始终值得检查,真正重要的问题是公司未来能否实现盈利增长。因此,检查分析师认为中信股份(adr)未来将赚取的利润(免费盈利预测)是很有意义的。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for CITIC the TSR over the last 5 years was -21%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
考虑任何给定股票的总股东回报以及股价回报是非常重要的。 股价回报只反映了股价的变化,而TSR包括分红派息的价值(假设它们被再投资)以及任何折价的增资或剥离的益处。可以说,TSR提供了对股票产生的回报更全面的图片。我们注意到,对于中信股份(adr),过去5年的TSR为-21%,这比上述股价回报要好。公司支付的分红因此增加了 总股东回报。
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
While the broader market gained around 8.5% in the last year, CITIC shareholders lost 3.1% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 4% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for CITIC you should be aware of.
尽管广泛市场在过去一年中获得了约8.5%的回报,但中信股份(adr)的股东损失了3.1%(即使包括分红)。然而,请记住,即使是最好的股票有时也会在十二个月的时间内表现不佳。不幸的是,长期股东们的状况更糟,过去五年中损失了4%。在我们能够燃起热情之前,我们需要看到关键指标的持续改善。长期跟踪股价表现总是很有趣。但要更好地了解中信股份(adr),我们需要考虑许多其他因素。 举个例子:我们发现中信股份存在1个警示信号,您应该注意。
We will like CITIC better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
如果我们看到一些大规模的内部人员购买,我们将更喜欢中信股份(adr)。 在等待时,请查看这份免费的增长公司名单,其中包括最近有相当规模内部购买的公司。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了当前在香港证券交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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