Zhitong Financial APP learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that US employment may have reached the peak of prosperity, and the unemployment rate may rise in the fourth quarter. There are three logic: first, the slowdown in job creation, second, sustained population growth, and third, the increase in the labor force participation rate. After the unemployment rate has entered a rising phase, core inflation may continue to cool due to the return of the Phillips curve.The current tight trading may turn to interest rate cuts, and the external repression of A shares may be significantly alleviated.

The main points of ▍ Cinda Securities are as follows:

What the United States is experiencing is not a typical recession, but a rolling recession.

At present, there are a number of economic characteristics that show that the United States is not experiencing a typical recession, but a rolling recession. In other words, some sectors of the economy are slowing and some are still expanding. This rolling recession is mainly due to the fact that excess savings interfere with the normal pace of decline in consumption.

Although the economy showed a downward trend in manufacturing and a resilient service sector in the first half of the year, the manufacturing sector may bottom out and rebound in the future, while the service sector may peak and fall back. Under the influence of some replenishment, the extent of this round of manufacturing recovery may not be high.

The local rebound in the new housing market is hard to change the downward trend of land production.

Apart from the fact that the slowdown in the service sector is stronger than that in manufacturing, the partial rebound in the new housing market can hardly change the downward trend in US real estate. The rise in the housing boom in the United States so far this year is mainly due to the pick-up in sales, and mainly the new housing market. When mortgage rates rise, the level of new home sales is still rising mainly because buyers use cash to buy homes, avoiding the pressure on mortgages. Second, the suppression of high mortgage rates is weakened by "interest rate buyouts" in the short term.

Although the new housing market has rebounded so far this year, there is a short-term impact of builders' buyout strategies, and the existing housing market has not improved significantly, and it may be difficult for US real estate to change its downward trend.

The Fed may cut interest rates ahead of time, and the external repression of A-shares may be significantly alleviated.

Since the Fed announced its interest rate debate, the market may maintain high interest rates for longer, and it is not expected to start cutting interest rates until July next year, but if the Fed does not raise interest rates this year, it is likely to cut interest rates earlier next year.

Employment in the United States may have reached the peak of prosperity, and the unemployment rate may rise in the fourth quarter. There are three logic: first, the creation of new jobs slows down; second, the population continues to grow; and third, the labor force participation rate increases. After the unemployment rate has entered a rising phase, due to the return of the Phillips curve, core inflation may continue to cool, the current tightening trading may turn to interest rate cuts, and the external repression of A-shares may be significantly alleviated.

Risk factors:

Oil prices rose more than expected; US monetary policy tightened more than expected.