10月16日-10月20日，食品饮料指数跌幅为5.4%，一级子行业排名第23，跑输沪深300约1.2pct，子行业中其他食品(+0.0%)、软饮料(-2.8%)、预加工食品(-3.1%)表现相对领先。受到贵州茅台三季报较低预期影响，叠加北向资金流出引发板块回落。周末贵州茅台公布三季报，2023Q3营收与利润分别增13.1%与15.7%，基本符合预期。预收款等指标表现良好，报表质量较高。Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that Kweichow Moutai released its three-quarter report over the weekend, and 2023Q3 revenue and profit increased 13.1% and 15.7% respectively, which is basically in line with expectations. Demand for liquor was stable during the year, and reporting resilience was strong. The slowdown in the growth rate of some liquor companies in the second half of the year was more a matter of delivery pace rather than a contraction in industry demand, and there was no need for a reduction in annual performance. Currently, liquor is still facing a structural recovery, and high-end liquor and real estate wine leaders are performing relatively well. The bank determined that liquor would gradually recover in the future, and at the same time continue to interpret the pattern of differentiation. The current valuation has fallen back to an attractive range, and it is recommended to actively configure the layout.
The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:
The Maotai quarterly report was in line with expectations, and the September news zero data continued to pick up
From October 16 to October 20, the food and beverage index fell by 5.4%, and the first-level sub-industry ranked 23rd, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by about 1.2 pct. Other food (+0.0%), soft drinks (-2.8%), and pre-processed food (-3.1%) were relatively leading in the sub-industry. Affected by low expectations in Kweichow Moutai's third quarterly report, compounded northbound capital outflows triggered a decline in the sector. Over the weekend, Kweichow Moutai released its three-quarter report. Revenue and profit increased 13.1% and 15.7% respectively in 2023Q3, which is basically in line with expectations. The performance of indicators such as advance payments was good, and the report quality was high.
Demand for liquor was stable during the year, and reporting resilience was strong. The slowdown in the growth rate of some liquor companies in the second half of the year was more a matter of delivery pace rather than a contraction in industry demand, and there was no need for a reduction in annual performance. Currently, liquor is still facing a structural recovery, and high-end liquor and real estate wine leaders are performing relatively well. The bank determined that liquor would gradually recover in the future, and at the same time continue to interpret the pattern of differentiation. The current valuation has fallen back to an attractive range, and it is recommended to actively configure the layout.
Total retail sales of consumer goods in September 2023 +5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was +0.9 pct in August;
Food and beverage revenue and beverage revenue above the quota was +13.8% and +12.8%, respectively. The growth rates were +1.4 pct and +2.4 pct, respectively, compared to August. September benefited from a misallocation of stocking times during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day and a boost in consumer demand. The growth rate of social zero data continued to rise, food and beverage consumption grew relatively well, and the growth rate of grain, oil, food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol increased month-on-month. As the macro-environment continues to improve, it is expected that consumption will continue to recover steadily in the fourth quarter.
Looking at the segmentation sector, demand for liquor is showing a steady recovery. Demand for gifts and banquets has been well met. It is recommended to lay out high-end liquor and leading real estate and wine companies. Dividends from snack mass sales channels in the casual snack sector continue to be released, and it is expected that Ganyuan Foods' performance will be flexible during the year. Seasonings suggest focusing on improved management by Zhongju Hi-Tech. As the catering industry continues to recover, there is still plenty of room for improvement in frozen foods and prepared dishes on the BC side.
Recommended Combinations:Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Ganyuan Foods (002991.SZ), Zhongju Hi-Tech (600872.SH)
1) Luzhou Laojiao: After the incentive system was improved, the company's momentum increased, and the digital marketing system was improved. In 2023, the volume of products released in the national cellar and waist was low, and the annual performance was highly certain.
2) Kweichow Moutai: The results of the three-quarter report were basically in line with expectations. The company uses i-Maotai as a hub for the reform of the marketing system, price system, and product system. In the future, the company will deepen the reform process, and the potential of the company's savings in this cycle has entered a period of release.
3) Ganyuan Food: Revenue continued to grow rapidly during the year. Channels such as snack stores, member stores, and e-commerce expanded their expected volume. Combined with a year-on-year decline in palm oil prices, performance during the year is expected to be highly flexible.
4) Zhongju Hi-Tech: The results of the third quarterly report slightly exceeded expectations, a new management team was put in place, the company's internal mechanisms were straightened out, the condiment business is on the right track, and future business improvements can be expected.
Risk warning:Economic downturn, food safety, fluctuating raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
