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Investors in Nanjing Iron & Steel (SHSE:600282) Have Seen Favorable Returns of 50% Over the Past Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 23, 2023 14:56

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, the Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600282) share price is up 21% in the last three years, clearly besting the market decline of around 16% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 22% , including dividends .

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

Check out our latest analysis for Nanjing Iron & Steel

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over the last three years, Nanjing Iron & Steel failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 15% (annualized).

So we doubt that the market is looking to EPS for its main judge of the company's value. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

We doubt the dividend payments explain the share price rise, since we don't see any improvement in that regard. It's much more likely that the fact that Nanjing Iron & Steel has been growing revenue at 12% a year is seen as a genuine positive. It could be that investors are content with the revenue growth on the basis that the company isn't really focussed on profits just yet. And that might explain the higher price.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:600282 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 23rd 2023

This free interactive report on Nanjing Iron & Steel's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Nanjing Iron & Steel's TSR for the last 3 years was 50%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Nanjing Iron & Steel shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 22% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 7%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Nanjing Iron & Steel (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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