Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. Long term Denali Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:DNLI) shareholders know that all too well, since the share price is down considerably over three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 56% in that time. And over the last year the share price fell 34%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 35% in the last three months.
After losing 12% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for Denali Therapeutics
Denali Therapeutics isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years Denali Therapeutics saw its revenue shrink by 0.9% per year. That is not a good result. The share price decline of 16% compound, over three years, is understandable given the company doesn't have profits to boast of, and revenue is moving in the wrong direction. Of course, it's the future that will determine whether today's price is a good one. We don't generally like to own companies that lose money and can't grow revenues. But any company is worth looking at when it makes a maiden profit.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Denali Therapeutics is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Denali Therapeutics had a tough year, with a total loss of 34%, against a market gain of about 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Denali Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
