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The One-year Shareholder Returns and Company Earnings Persist Lower as Glacier Bancorp (NYSE:GBCI) Stock Falls a Further 4.7% in Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 25, 2023 03:57

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Unfortunately the Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (NYSE:GBCI) share price slid 43% over twelve months. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 12%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 21% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 10% in the last 90 days. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 8.3% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

With the stock having lost 4.7% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for Glacier Bancorp

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Unfortunately Glacier Bancorp reported an EPS drop of 9.5% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 43% share price fall. Unsurprisingly, given the lack of EPS growth, the market seems to be more cautious about the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:GBCI Earnings Per Share Growth October 25th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Glacier Bancorp's TSR for the last 1 year was -41%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Glacier Bancorp shareholders are down 41% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 3% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Glacier Bancorp better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Glacier Bancorp (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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