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家临江:存储芯片价格大涨,港股芯片代工厂跟不跟?

Jia Linjiang: The price of memory chips has soared, can't Hong Kong stock chip foundries keep up?

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 26, 2023 22:17

The latest market news is that the Q4 official price of Samsung storage products was announced, with an increase of 10%-30%, with a maximum increase of 66%. Professional research and research shows that the average price of DRAM and NAND Flash has begun to rise across the board. Looking at DRAM, it is estimated that the contract price for the fourth quarter will increase by about 3% to 8%; the contract price of NAND Flash in the fourth quarter will rise across the board, with an increase of about 8% to 13%.

According to the latest research by TrendForce Jibang Consulting, the quarterly increase in mobile DRAM contract prices in the fourth quarter is estimated to expand to 13%-18%. In terms of NAND Flash, contract prices for eMMC and UFS increased by about 10%-15% in the fourth quarter; since Mobile DRAM has always had lower profit performance than other DRAM products, it has become the leading project this time.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, it is estimated that the overall memory growth will continue, but due to the traditional off-season and the small number of working days during the Spring Festival, the price tracking atmosphere may cool down a bit, but it is currently estimated that the mobile DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices will continue to rise in the first quarter of next year. The increase depends on whether the original manufacturer maintains a conservative production strategy and whether the terminal has substantial buying support.

According to data from Jibang Consulting, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ranked in the top two in the global DRAM market in the fourth quarter of 2022, with market shares of 45.1% and 27.7%, respectively. In the global NAND market, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ranked first and third, with market shares of 31.4% and 18.5% respectively.

Samsung has always been a leader in the technology industry due to its leading position in chips, electronics, and smartphones. The company also benefited from strong sales of its foldable phones. The world's largest smartphone manufacturer previously launched a fifth-generation foldable phone, entering a field where Apple's competing products have yet to enter. Now that Samsung Electronics' memory chip prices have been announced, the cyclical pattern of the entire industry chain has opened up.

Jiang Bolong, the leading A-share memory chip company, has performed well in recent performance. In the third quarter of 2023, Jiang Bolong achieved revenue of 2,882 billion yuan, an increase of 66.62% over the previous year. The gross margin for the third quarter returned to around 5%, a significant increase compared to the second quarter. The memory chip sector mainly includes Jiang Bolong, Wanrun Technology, Demingli, Tongyou Technology, Dongxin Co., Ltd., Baiwei Storage, etc.

Looking at the supply side of the industry, CITIC Securities expects the industry's supply growth rate to be lower than the demand growth rate in 2023, and that supply and demand will gradually reach a balance, which will help restore inventory, and is optimistic that the storage sector cycle will bottom out in the second half of 2023. On the demand side, terminal manufacturers are currently in the late stages of removing inventory, and annual shipments are expected to show both low and high levels. They are optimistic about the recovery trend of downstream demand from the second half of 2023 to 2024. Now that the industrial chain cycle has begun, the three foundries in the Hong Kong stock market, Shanghai Fudan (01385), SMIC (00981), and Huahong Semiconductor (01347), are also worth paying attention to.

Disclaimer: The article only provides shareholders' discussions and does not constitute investment advice. The author does not hold any of the Hong Kong stocks mentioned above. The stock market is risky, so you need to be careful when investing!

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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