The Zhitong Finance app learned that Debon Securities released a research report saying that according to statistics from the “Expert Consensus on Obesity Prevention and Control among Chinese Residents”, the proportion of overweight and obese Chinese adults is over half, and the domestic population is expected to exceed 600 million. GLP-1 is a type of enteroinsulinizing hormone naturally occurring in the human body. It plays a role in weight loss through the central nervous system and gastrointestinal tract. The GLP1 weight loss drug market exploded, with a space of 100 billion US dollars, helping Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world by market capitalization. With the US and China approving various weight loss drugs, the bank believes that the diet drug market will explode, with strong consumption attributes and large space, so it is worth focusing on.

The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:

Obesity is the “root of all evil,” and the solution to “disease comes from the mouth.”

According to statistics from the “Expert Consensus on Obesity Prevention and Control among Chinese Residents”, the proportion of overweight and obese Chinese adults is over half, and the domestic population is estimated to exceed 600 million. Obesity poses a serious threat to personal health, and is significantly positively correlated with various chronic diseases such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia, and is the “source of all evil” of health. With the US and China approving a variety of weight loss drugs, the bank believes that the diet drug market will explode, with strong consumption attributes and large space, which is worth focusing on.

GLP-1 drugs have become the drug of choice for obesity, and multiple indications are expanding rapidly.

GLP-1 is a type of enteroinsulinizing hormone naturally occurring in the human body. It plays a role in weight loss through the central nervous system and gastrointestinal tract. At present, there are the following trends in development: 1) Prolongation: from exenatide/benarutide 2-3 times/day to risinatide/liraglutide once a day to duracopeptide/liraglutide once a day to duracopeptide/simeglutide once a day, greatly improving compliance; 2) From single target to multiple targets: Lilai's dual-target telpotide has been approved for sale, and Cinda Biotech's three-target Retatrutide has set a new weight loss record; 3) From drug to drug Combinations: Novo Nordisk's CagriSema consists of a fixed dose combination of semeglutide and cagallitide, Lilly's acquisition of Versanis to lay out Bimagrumab (ActriIA/b monoclonal antibody) to promote new highlights in fat loss and muscle gain; 4) From weight loss to other indications: international giants have promoted the development of other indications of GLP-1 drugs, such as NASH, Alzheimer's disease, peripheral cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, and sleep apnea syndrome. According to an article published in May 23, GLP-1 drugs can prolong life, and multiple indications spread like peptides; 5) Oral administration vs. injection, small molecules vs. polymorphine : The convenience of oral administration is higher than that of injections. Novo Nordisk has been approved for the market. Several small molecule GLP-1 drugs for oral administration are clinically, and safety is the core consideration.

The GLP1 weight loss drug market exploded, leaving space in the order of 100 billion US dollars, helping Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world by market capitalization.

The US capital market is highly recognized by the US capital market for the explosive growth of GLP-1, Novo Nordisk meglutide, and Lilly's tilpotide, which are expected to exceed 20 billion US dollars and 4 billion US dollars respectively throughout the year. Catalyzed by sales exceeding expectations and clinical data exceeding expectations, it helped Lilly's market capitalization of 500 billion US dollars and Novo Nordisk's market value of 400 billion US dollars, making it the top three pharmaceutical companies in the world by market capitalization.

The domestic market is about to explode, and several products are already marketing/post-clinical: The bank considers sales capacity based on product type and R&D progress. The recommendations are as follows:

1) Targets with GLP-1 to reduce new drugs and have a complete pipeline: US stock focus - Lilly, Novo Nordisk, etc.; domestic focus: Cinda Biotech (01801), East China Pharmaceutical (000963.SZ), Shiyao Pharmaceutical (01093), Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276.SH), Borui Pharmaceutical (688166.SH), Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ), etc.

2) Simei expires in '26. Focus on fast-progressing companies: Livzon Group (000513.SZ), Federal Pharmaceutical (03933), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460), and Zhifei Biotech (300122.SZ).