The Zhitong Finance App learned that CaiTong Securities released a research report saying,Overseas investment and financing are gradually picking upIt is recommended to focus on companies with relatively high levels of overseas business, and rapidly developing emerging businesses such as peptides (603259.SH); and Kanglong Chemical (300759.SZ), etc.; and Kanglong Chemical (300759.SZ), which accounts for a relatively high share of overseas accounts and has had many recent valuation pullbacks; secondly, the number of INDs in 2023Q1-Q3 is relatively stable. It is recommended to focus on clinical CRO with relatively abundant orders, including Tiger Pharmaceuticals (300347.SZ), etc.
▍ The main views of CaiTong Securities are as follows:
The overseas investment and financing situation improved in September 2023, and there was a slight year-on-year improvement from January to September 2023:
According to statistics from Pharmaceutical Intelligence Network, the total amount of global investment and financing in 2023 was about 62,047 billion yuan, up 24.49% year on year, up 39.51% month on month; total investment and financing from January to September 2023 was about 448.111 billion yuan, up 0.48% year on year;
Excluding Chinese investment and financing data, the total amount of overseas investment and financing in September 2023 was about 54.564 billion yuan, up 50.14% year on year, up 51.26% month on month; from January to September 2023, the total amount of overseas investment and financing was about 362.207 billion yuan, up 9.05% year on year.
In September 2023, domestic investment and financing was hovering at the bottom for the time being:
According to statistics from Pharmaceutical Intelligence Network, in September 2023, the total amount of domestic investment and financing was about 7.483 billion yuan, down 44.57% from the previous year and 10.94% from the previous year; the performance in June-July was good, and domestic investment and financing sentiment was relatively sluggish in August-September, mainly due to various factors such as the promulgation of new policies, the increase in the difficulty factor for IPO exit, and the continued slump in the secondary market performance.
From January to September 2023, the total amount of domestic investment and financing was about 85.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.53%. It will still take time for financing to recover, and it is currently hovering at the bottom.
IND is relatively stable, and the growth rate of biological products IND is faster than class 1 new drugs:
In September 2023, the number of new class 1 drug INDs approved by the CDE was 105, an increase of 52% over the previous year, a decrease of 7% over the previous year; the number of Class 1 new drug INDs approved by 2023Q1-Q3CDE was 799, an increase of 9.9% over the previous year.
The growth rate of biological product INDs is faster than Class 1 new drugs (including chemicals and traditional Chinese medicines). In September 2023, the number of biological product INDs approved by the CDE was 85, an increase of 55% over the previous year and 20% over the previous year; the number of biological product INDs approved by the 2023Q1-Q3 CDE was 662, an increase of 23% over the previous year.
Risk warning:
The risk of fluctuations in the macro-environment, the risk that the financing environment will deteriorate as the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the risk of industry regulatory policies, the risk of increasing competition in the industry, and the risk of geopolitical impact, etc.