血糖监测是糖尿病治疗与管理的重要环节，正朝着无创、便携、精准的方向不断发展。血糖监测有助于控制血糖水平，减少糖尿病并发症的发生，主要手段包括指尖血糖监测、连续血糖监测、糖化血红蛋白测定等，其中连续血糖监测(CGM)能够起到更好的血糖控制效果、降低低血糖的发生频率，近年来在全球血糖监测市场比重逐步提升，从2015年的9.8%提升至2020年的21.3%。Zhitong Finance APP learned that Guolian Securities released a research report saying that there are currently 2 imported enterprises (Abbott, Medtronic) and 9 domestic enterprises with CGM product registration certificates in China. In recent years, the approved domestic products have made great progress in measurement accuracy, service life, calibration-free and other aspects; at the same time, they have low manufacturing costs, bringing cost-performance advantages and are expected to gain more market share. With the launch of the Yuyue CT3 and Sannuo i3 series,Domestic CGM has entered the stage of rapid commercial development, and domestic leaders are expected to quickly open the market by virtue of existing channel advantages.
The main points of ▍ Guolian Securities are as follows:
CGM opens a new era of blood glucose monitoring
Blood glucose monitoring is an important part of diabetes treatment and management, and is developing towards non-invasive, portable and accurate direction. Blood glucose monitoring helps to control blood glucose levels and reduce the occurrence of diabetes complications. The main means include fingertip blood glucose monitoring, continuous blood glucose monitoring, glycosylated hemoglobin measurement, etc. Among them, continuous blood glucose monitoring (CGM) can play a better role in blood glucose control and reduce the frequency of hypoglycemia. In recent years, the proportion of global blood glucose monitoring market has gradually increased, from 9.8% in 2015 to 21.3% in 2020.
Global CGM market is growing rapidly, with overseas giants dominating the market
Due to the advantages of CGM application and increased consumer acceptance, the global CGM market size has grown from US$1.7 billion in 2015 to US$5.7 billion in 2020, with a CAGR of 27.4%. Dekang and Abbott are the current leaders in the CGM market, accounting for 80% of the global market in 2020, while Abbott alone will account for 78% of the domestic market in 2020.
As the largest country in the number of diabetes patients in the world, China has relatively low penetration rate of CGM and great growth potential in the future. According to the forecast of Shaozhi Consulting, the domestic CGM market scale is expected to grow from 8.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 16.6 billion yuan in 2030.
Domestic performance gradually catch-up into the heavy volume stage
At present, there are 2 imported enterprises (Abbott and Medtronic) and 9 domestic enterprises with CGM product registration certificates in China. In recent years, the approved domestic products have made great progress in measurement accuracy, service life and calibration exemption; at the same time, they have lower manufacturing costs, bringing cost-performance advantages and are expected to gain more market shares.
With the launch of Yuyue CT3 and Sannuo i3 series, domestic CGM has entered the stage of rapid commercial development, and domestic leaders are expected to quickly open the market by virtue of existing channel advantages.
Investment suggestion
Yuyue Medical (002223.SZ): The leader of domestic household medical devices, focusing on three core growth tracks of respiration, blood sugar and sensory control, a new generation of CGM products has been approved for marketing and is expected to continue to contribute to performance increment. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2023 to 2025 will be CNY 25.3/20.4/24.3 billion respectively, with growth rates of 58.8%/-19.4%/18.8% respectively, and CAGR of 15.0% in 3 years. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 20 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 40.74 yuan. For the first time, it will be covered and given a "buy" rating.
Sannuo Biological (300298.SZ): The first approved third-generation technology CGM product in China is expected to open the second growth curve by virtue of the advantages of domestic and foreign sales channels of blood glucose meter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2023 to 2025 will be CNY 4.2/5.5/690 million respectively, the growth rate will be-1.5%/28.9%/25.3% respectively, and the CAGR for 3 years will be 16.7%. According to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given 25 times PS for CGM business in 2024, 20 times PE for other businesses in 2024, target price of 34.27 yuan, coverage for the first time, and "buy" rating.
Risk Tips:
Increased market competition leads to product price reduction risk; market promotion is less than expected risk; new product research and development is less than expected risk; overseas expansion is less than expected risk.
