Last week, you might have seen that TrustCo Bank Corp NY (NASDAQ:TRST) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to US$25.49 in the past week. TrustCo Bank Corp NY reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$47m and statutory earnings per share of US$0.77, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analyst typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analyst is expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for TrustCo Bank Corp NY
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the lone analyst covering TrustCo Bank Corp NY, is for revenues of US$189.3m in 2024. This implies a small 5.9% reduction in TrustCo Bank Corp NY's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 21% to US$2.89 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$189.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.86 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analyst has updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$26.00, suggesting that the analyst might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 4.7% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 3.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.3% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that TrustCo Bank Corp NY's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analyst holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analyst also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that TrustCo Bank Corp NY's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analyst seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of TrustCo Bank Corp NY's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on TrustCo Bank Corp NY. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for TrustCo Bank Corp NY going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with TrustCo Bank Corp NY , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.