Today is shaping up negative for MaxLinear, Inc. (NASDAQ:MXL) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from eleven analysts covering MaxLinear is for revenues of US$607m in 2024, implying a concerning 29% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.87 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$717m and losses of US$0.24 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for MaxLinear
The consensus price target fell 26% to US$23.45, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 24% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 28% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - MaxLinear is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at MaxLinear. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that MaxLinear's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to next year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of MaxLinear.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple MaxLinear analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
