To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. Having said that, after a brief look, Shenzhen Sunline Tech (SZSE:300348) we aren't filled with optimism, but let's investigate further.
What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Shenzhen Sunline Tech, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.038 = CN¥61m ÷ (CN¥2.5b - CN¥878m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
So, Shenzhen Sunline Tech has an ROCE of 3.8%. On its own that's a low return on capital but it's in line with the industry's average returns of 4.2%.
See our latest analysis for Shenzhen Sunline Tech
In the above chart we have measured Shenzhen Sunline Tech's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Shenzhen Sunline Tech here for free.
The Trend Of ROCE
We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Shenzhen Sunline Tech. About five years ago, returns on capital were 6.0%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Shenzhen Sunline Tech to turn into a multi-bagger.
On a side note, Shenzhen Sunline Tech's current liabilities have increased over the last five years to 35% of total assets, effectively distorting the ROCE to some degree. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. While the ratio isn't currently too high, it's worth keeping an eye on this because if it gets particularly high, the business could then face some new elements of risk.
The Bottom Line On Shenzhen Sunline Tech's ROCE
In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Despite the concerning underlying trends, the stock has actually gained 7.2% over the last five years, so it might be that the investors are expecting the trends to reverse. Either way, we aren't huge fans of the current trends and so with that we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
If you want to continue researching Shenzhen Sunline Tech, you might be interested to know about the 2 warning signs that our analysis has discovered.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.