Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Shanghai Dragon Corporation (SHSE:600630) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Shanghai Dragon
What Is Shanghai Dragon's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Shanghai Dragon had CN¥472.3m of debt at September 2023, down from CN¥575.2m a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥383.5m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥88.8m.
How Healthy Is Shanghai Dragon's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Shanghai Dragon had liabilities of CN¥763.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥187.9m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥383.5m and CN¥188.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥379.2m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Shanghai Dragon has a market capitalization of CN¥3.86b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Shanghai Dragon's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
In the last year Shanghai Dragon had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 48%, to CN¥1.4b. That makes us nervous, to say the least.
Caveat Emptor
While Shanghai Dragon's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Its EBIT loss was a whopping CN¥403m. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. We would feel better if it turned its trailing twelve month loss of CN¥462m into a profit. In the meantime, we consider the stock very risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Shanghai Dragon , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
