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Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 12% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Three-year Shareholder Returns

Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 12% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Three-year Shareholder Returns

联邦农业抵押贷款(纽约证券交易所代码:AGM)本周上涨12%,尽管收益增长仍落后于三年期股东回报
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/05 08:14

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For instance the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE:AGM) share price is 152% higher than it was three years ago. Most would be happy with that. It's even up 12% in the last week. But this might be partly because the broader market had a good week last week, gaining 5.9%.

在买入公司股票(假设没有杠杆作用)之后,最糟糕的结果是你损失了所有投入的钱。但是,当你选择一家真正蓬勃发展的公司时,你可以 使 超过 100%。例如,联邦农业抵押贷款公司(纽约证券交易所代码:AGM)的股价比三年前高出152%。大多数人会对此感到满意。上周甚至上涨了12%。但这可能部分是因为上周大盘表现不错,上涨了5.9%。

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Federal Agricultural Mortgage investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

事实证明,过去一周对联邦农业抵押贷款投资者来说是有利可图的,所以让我们看看基本面是否推动了公司的三年业绩。

See our latest analysis for Federal Agricultural Mortgage

查看我们对联邦农业抵押贷款的最新分析

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

虽然市场是一种强大的定价机制,但股价反映了投资者的情绪,而不仅仅是潜在的业务表现。研究市场情绪如何随着时间的推移而变化的一种方法是研究公司股价与其每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。

Federal Agricultural Mortgage was able to grow its EPS at 21% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 36% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

联邦农业抵押贷款能够在三年内以每年21%的速度增长每股收益,从而推动股价上涨。相比之下,股价每年上涨36%,超过每股收益的增长。因此,可以公平地假设市场对该业务的看法比三年前更高。在经历了几年的增长之后,看到市场 “重新评级” 股票的情况并不少见。

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下图中看到 EPS 随时间推移的变化(点击图表查看确切值)。

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:AGM Earnings Per Share Growth November 5th 2023
纽约证券交易所:AGM 每股收益增长 2023 年 11 月 5 日

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Federal Agricultural Mortgage's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

我们认为,去年内部人士进行了大量收购,这是积极的。话虽如此,大多数人认为收益和收入增长趋势是更有意义的业务指南。查看这张联邦农业抵押贷款收益、收入和现金流的交互式图表,深入了解收益。

What About Dividends?

分红呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Federal Agricultural Mortgage, it has a TSR of 179% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股价回报外,投资者还应考虑股东总回报(TSR)。股东总回报率是一种回报计算方法,它考虑了现金分红的价值(假设收到的任何股息已被再投资)以及任何贴现资本筹集和分拆的计算价值。因此,对于支付丰厚股息的公司来说,股东总回报率通常远高于股价回报。就联邦农业抵押贷款而言,其过去3年的股东总回报率为179%。这超过了我们之前提到的股价回报率。因此,该公司支付的股息促进了 股东回报。

A Different Perspective

不同的视角

It's nice to see that Federal Agricultural Mortgage shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 46% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 22% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Federal Agricultural Mortgage better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Federal Agricultural Mortgage (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

很高兴看到联邦农业抵押贷款股东在去年获得了46%的股东总回报率。当然,这包括分红。这比五年来22%的年化回报率要好,这意味着该公司最近的表现更好。持乐观观点的人可能会将最近股东总回报率的改善视为业务本身随着时间的推移而变得越来越好。长期跟踪股价表现总是很有意思的。但是,为了更好地了解联邦农业抵押贷款,我们需要考虑许多其他因素。例如,我们已经确定了联邦农业抵押贷款的两个警告信号(1 个让我们有点不舒服),你应该注意这些信号。

Federal Agricultural Mortgage is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

联邦农业抵押贷款并不是内部人士购买的唯一股票。对于那些喜欢寻找中奖投资的人来说,这份最近有内幕收购的成长型公司的免费名单可能只是门票。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在美国交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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