Grace Life-tech Holdings Limited (HKG:2112) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 26% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 49% in that time.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Trade Distributors industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.6x, you may still consider Grace Life-tech Holdings as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.2x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.
View our latest analysis for Grace Life-tech Holdings
How Has Grace Life-tech Holdings Performed Recently?
For instance, Grace Life-tech Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Grace Life-tech Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.
What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Grace Life-tech Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 32%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 88% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 4.9% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we find it concerning that Grace Life-tech Holdings is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What Does Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S Mean For Investors?
Despite the recent share price weakness, Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Grace Life-tech Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.
Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Grace Life-tech Holdings (including 2 which make us uncomfortable).
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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