It's been a pretty great week for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) shareholders, with its shares surging 10% to US$21.27 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at US$943m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Diebold Nixdorf
After the latest results, the three analysts covering Diebold Nixdorf are now predicting revenues of US$3.85b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 86% to US$4.28 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.71 in 2024. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the substantial gain in earnings per share expectations following these results.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 20% to US$27.00. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Diebold Nixdorf, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$29.00 and the most bearish at US$25.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Diebold Nixdorf is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Diebold Nixdorf's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Diebold Nixdorf's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 3.3% growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 5.9% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.5% annually for the foreseeable future. Although Diebold Nixdorf's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Diebold Nixdorf's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Diebold Nixdorf's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Diebold Nixdorf going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Diebold Nixdorf that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
