If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But the long term shareholders of Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 53% share price collapse, in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 37% in a year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 16% in thirty days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.
Since Mercury Systems has shed US$286m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
See our latest analysis for Mercury Systems
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Mercury Systems saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Mercury Systems' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
Investors in Mercury Systems had a tough year, with a total loss of 37%, against a market gain of about 10%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Mercury Systems has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Mercury Systems is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
