The analysts covering Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVI) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about Maravai LifeSciences Holdings recently, with the stock price up an impressive 10% to US$5.19 in the past week. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from twelve analysts covering Maravai LifeSciences Holdings is for revenues of US$278m in 2024, implying a stressful 34% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of US$336m in 2024. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, noting the measurable cut to revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for Maravai LifeSciences Holdings

The consensus price target fell 26% to US$10.00, with the analysts clearly less optimistic about Maravai LifeSciences Holdings' valuation following this update.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 28% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 24% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Maravai LifeSciences Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for next year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Maravai LifeSciences Holdings' future valuation. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Maravai LifeSciences Holdings after today.

Want to learn more? At least one of Maravai LifeSciences Holdings' twelve analysts has provided estimates out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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