Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' (NASDAQ:BAER) Earnings Are Of Questionable Quality
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' (NASDAQ:BAER) Earnings Are Of Questionable Quality
Despite announcing strong earnings, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:BAER) stock was sluggish. Our analysis uncovered some concerning factors that we believe the market might be paying attention to.
尽管宣布了强劲的收益,但布里杰航空航天集团控股有限公司。”s(纳斯达克股票代码:BAER)的股票表现低迷。我们的分析发现了一些我们认为市场可能会关注的令人担忧的因素。
See our latest analysis for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings
查看我们对布里杰航空航天集团控股公司的最新分析
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Zooming In On Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' Earnings
放大布里杰航空航天集团控股公司的收益
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
正如财务爱好者已经知道的那样,现金流的应计比率是评估公司自由现金流(FCF)与其利润相匹配程度的关键指标。为了获得应计比率,我们首先从一段时间内的利润中减去FCF,然后将该数字除以该期间的平均运营资产。你可以将现金流的应计比率视为 “非FCF利润率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
这意味着负应计比率是一件好事,因为它表明该公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所暗示的还要多。尽管应计比率高于零并不令人担忧,但我们确实认为,当公司的应计比率相对较高时,值得注意。引用Lewellen和Resutek在2014年发表的一篇论文,“应计额较高的公司未来的利润往往较低”。
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings has an accrual ratio of 0.40 for the year to September 2023. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of US$65m despite its profit of US$22.9m, mentioned above. We also note that Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of US$65m. The good news for shareholders is that Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
截至2023年9月的一年中,布里杰航空航天集团控股公司的应计比率为0.40。从统计学上讲,这对未来的收益来说确实是负面的。换句话说,该公司在那段时间内没有产生任何自由现金流。在过去的十二个月里,它实际上有 负面的 自由现金流,尽管利润为2,290万美元,但流出量为6500万美元,如上所述。我们还注意到,Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings去年的自由现金流实际上也为负数,因此我们可以理解股东是否因其6500万美元的流出而感到困扰。对股东来说,好消息是,Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings去年的应计比率要好得多,因此今年的糟糕数据可能只是利润与FCF之间短期不匹配的情况。因此,一些股东可能希望在本年度实现更强的现金转换。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的实力。点击此处查看我们对布里杰航空航天集团控股公司的资产负债表分析。
Our Take On Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' Profit Performance
我们对布里杰航空航天集团控股公司盈利表现的看法
As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. The good news is that it earned a profit in the last twelve months, despite its previous loss. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. You'd be interested to know, that we found 3 warning signs for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings and you'll want to know about these bad boys.
正如我们已经明确指出的那样,我们有点担心布里杰航空航天集团控股公司没有用自由现金流来支持去年的利润。出于这个原因,我们认为Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings的法定利润可能不利于其潜在盈利能力,并可能给投资者留下过于积极的公司印象。好消息是,尽管之前出现亏损,但它在过去十二个月中还是实现了盈利。本文的目标是评估我们在多大程度上可以依靠法定收益来反映公司的潜力,但还有很多需要考虑的地方。考虑到这一点,除非我们对风险有透彻的了解,否则我们不会考虑投资股票。你可能会有兴趣知道,我们发现了布里杰航空航天集团控股公司的三个警告信号,你会想知道这些坏孩子的情况。
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
本报告仅研究了揭示布里杰航空航天集团控股公司利润性质的单一因素。但是,还有很多其他方法可以让你对公司的看法。例如,许多人认为高股本回报率是有利的商业经济的标志,而另一些人则喜欢 “关注资金”,寻找内部人士正在买入的股票。虽然可能需要你进行一些研究,但你可能会发现这份免费收集的拥有高股本回报率的公司,或者这份内部人士正在购买的股票清单很有用。
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Simply Wall St 的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论,我们的文章并非旨在提供财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不会考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。华尔街只是没有持有上述任何股票的头寸。