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Is Anhui Conch Cement (HKG:914) A Risky Investment?

Is Anhui Conch Cement (HKG:914) A Risky Investment?

安徽海螺水泥(HKG: 914)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/21 17:56

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (HKG:914) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

有人说,作为投资者,波动性而不是债务是考虑风险的最佳方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”因此,当你评估公司的风险时,聪明的货币似乎知道债务——通常与破产有关——是一个非常重要的因素。重要的是,安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司(HKG: 914)确实有债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?

When Is Debt A Problem?

债务何时会成为问题?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

债务可以为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以偿还债务,无论是新资本还是自由现金流。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制业务。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东才能控制债务。但是,通过取代稀释,对于需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业来说,债务可以成为一个非常好的工具。考虑公司债务水平的第一步是将其现金和债务一起考虑。

Check out our latest analysis for Anhui Conch Cement

查看我们对安徽海螺水泥的最新分析

What Is Anhui Conch Cement's Net Debt?

安徽海螺水泥的净负债是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2023 Anhui Conch Cement had CN¥26.2b of debt, an increase on CN¥20.2b, over one year. However, it does have CN¥69.5b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥43.3b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示,截至2023年9月,安徽海螺水泥在一年内有262亿元人民币的债务,比20.2亿元人民币增加了人民币。但是,它确实有695亿元人民币的现金抵消了这一点,因此净现金为4,33亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:914 Debt to Equity History November 21st 2023
香港交易所:914 债权与股权历史记录 2023 年 11 月 21 日

How Healthy Is Anhui Conch Cement's Balance Sheet?

安徽海螺水泥的资产负债表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Anhui Conch Cement had liabilities of CN¥31.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥19.4b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥69.5b in cash and CN¥20.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥39.6b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

纵观最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,安徽海螺水泥在12个月内到期的负债为311亿元人民币,此后到期的负债为194亿元人民币。抵消这一点的是,它有695亿元人民币的现金和206亿元人民币的应收账款,这些应收账款将在12个月内到期。所以它实际上有39.6亿元人民币 更多 流动资产超过总负债。

This surplus strongly suggests that Anhui Conch Cement has a rock-solid balance sheet (and the debt is of no concern whatsoever). On this view, lenders should feel as safe as the beloved of a black-belt karate master. Succinctly put, Anhui Conch Cement boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

这种盈余有力地表明,安徽海螺水泥的资产负债表坚如磐石(债务不成问题)。基于这种观点,贷款人应该像黑带空手道大师心爱的人一样感到安全。简而言之,安徽海螺水泥拥有净现金,因此可以说它没有沉重的债务负担!

The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Anhui Conch Cement if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 54% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Anhui Conch Cement's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

如果管理层无法阻止去年削减54%的息税前利润重演,那么债务负担的适度可能对安徽海螺水泥至关重要。收益下降(如果这种趋势持续下去)最终也可能使即使是适度的债务也变得相当危险。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是,将决定安徽海螺水泥未来保持健康资产负债表能力的,最重要的是未来的收益。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Anhui Conch Cement has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Anhui Conch Cement reported free cash flow worth 11% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

最后,尽管税务员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。尽管安徽海螺水泥的资产负债表上有净现金,但仍值得一看其将息税前收益(EBIT)转换为自由现金流的能力,以帮助我们了解其建立(或侵蚀)现金余额的速度有多快。在过去三年中,安徽海螺水泥公布的自由现金流占其息税前收益的11%,这确实相当低。这种低迷的现金转换水平削弱了其管理和偿还债务的能力。

Summing Up

总结

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Anhui Conch Cement has CN¥43.3b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we don't have any problem with Anhui Conch Cement's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Anhui Conch Cement that you should be aware of.

尽管调查公司的债务总是明智的,但在这种情况下,安徽海螺水泥拥有433亿元人民币的净现金和看上去不错的资产负债表。因此,我们对安徽海螺水泥使用债务没有任何异议。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。例如,我们已经为安徽海螺水泥确定了两个警告标志,你应该注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

毕竟,如果你对一家资产负债表坚如磐石的快速成长型公司更感兴趣,那么请立即查看我们的净现金增长股票清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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