One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Just take a look at China Power International Development Limited (HKG:2380), which is up 86%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 26% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 8.2% , including dividends .
While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
Check out our latest analysis for China Power International Development
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During three years of share price growth, China Power International Development moved from a loss to profitability. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that China Power International Development has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think China Power International Development will grow revenue in the future.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, China Power International Development's TSR for the last 3 years was 115%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that China Power International Development shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.2% over the last year. That's including the dividend. However, the TSR over five years, coming in at 16% per year, is even more impressive. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Power International Development better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for China Power International Development you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.
But note: China Power International Development may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
