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Nameson Holdings (HKG:1982) Investors Are up 41% in the Past Week, but Earnings Have Declined Over the Last Year

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 27, 2023 19:45

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). To wit, the Nameson Holdings Limited (HKG:1982) share price is 25% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market decline of around 1.5% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 19% higher than it was three years ago.

Since it's been a strong week for Nameson Holdings shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Nameson Holdings

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over the last twelve months, Nameson Holdings actually shrank its EPS by 37%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

Absent any improvement, we don't think a thirst for dividends is pushing up the Nameson Holdings' share price. Revenue actually dropped 9.8% over last year. Usually that correlates with a lower share price, but let's face it, the gyrations of the market are sometimes only as clear as mud.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:1982 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 28th 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Nameson Holdings, it has a TSR of 41% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Nameson Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 41% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Nameson Holdings .

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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