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Is Goertek (SZSE:002241) A Risky Investment?

Is Goertek (SZSE:002241) A Risky Investment?

歌尔科技(深圳证券交易所:002241)是一项风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/28 18:16

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Goertek Inc. (SZSE:002241) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金经理李璐对此毫不掩饰,他说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久性的资本损失。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢看它对债务的使用,因为债务超负荷可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样,Goertek Inc.(SZSE:002241)也使用债务。但真正的问题是,这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。

When Is Debt A Problem?

债务何时会成为问题?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以用新的资本或自由现金流还清债务。资本主义的重要部分是 “创造性破坏” 的过程,在这个过程中,倒闭的企业被银行家无情地清算。但是,更常见(但仍然令人痛苦)的情况是,它必须以低廉的价格筹集新的股权资本,从而永久稀释股东。当然,债务可能是企业的重要工具,尤其是资本密集型企业。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。

See our latest analysis for Goertek

查看我们对 Goertek 的最新分析

What Is Goertek's Net Debt?

歌尔泰克的净负债是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Goertek had CN¥13.6b of debt, up from CN¥12.5b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥13.3b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥342.2m.

如下所示,截至2023年9月底,歌尔有136亿元人民币的债务,高于去年同期的125亿元人民币。点击图片了解更多详情。但是,由于其现金储备为133亿元人民币,其净负债较少,约为3.422亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002241 Debt to Equity History November 28th 2023
SZSE: 002241 债权与股权历史记录 2023 年 11 月 28 日

How Healthy Is Goertek's Balance Sheet?

歌尔资产负债表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Goertek had liabilities of CN¥38.8b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥8.18b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥13.3b as well as receivables valued at CN¥17.3b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥16.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

根据上次公布的资产负债表,歌尔在12个月内到期的负债为388亿元人民币,12个月后到期的负债为81.8亿元人民币。为了抵消这些债务,它有133亿元人民币的现金以及价值173亿元人民币的应收账款,将在12个月内到期。因此,其负债总额比其现金和短期应收账款的总和高出164亿元人民币。

Goertek has a market capitalization of CN¥62.8b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk. Carrying virtually no net debt, Goertek has a very light debt load indeed. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Goertek can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

歌尔泰克的市值为628亿元人民币,因此,如果有需要,它很可能会筹集资金来改善资产负债表。但是我们一定要睁大眼睛,看看有迹象表明其债务带来了太大风险。歌尔几乎没有净负债,债务负担确实很轻。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但最终,该业务的未来盈利能力将决定歌尔能否随着时间的推移加强其资产负债表。因此,如果你专注于未来,你可以查看这份显示分析师利润预测的免费报告。

In the last year Goertek wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 5.1%, to CN¥105b. That rate of growth is a bit slow for our taste, but it takes all types to make a world.

去年,歌尔没有按息税前利润水平实现盈利,但收入成功增长了5.1%,达到1050亿元人民币。就我们的口味而言,这种增长速度有点慢,但是创造一个世界需要所有类型。

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Importantly, Goertek had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost CN¥1.1b at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. We would feel better if it turned its trailing twelve month loss of CN¥1.2b into a profit. So we do think this stock is quite risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Goertek is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

重要的是,歌尔去年出现了利息税前收益(EBIT)亏损。事实上,它在息税前利润水平上损失了11亿元人民币。考虑到除了上述负债外,我们对公司应该使用如此多的债务没有太大信心。坦率地说,我们认为资产负债表远非匹配,尽管随着时间的推移可能会有所改善。如果它将过去十二个月的12亿元人民币的亏损转化为利润,我们会感觉好些。因此,我们确实认为这只股票风险很大。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表显然是起点。但是,并非所有的投资风险都存在于资产负债表中——远非如此。请注意,Goertek在我们的投资分析中显示了1个警告信号,你应该知道...

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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