Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Air China Limited (HKG:753) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Air China
How Much Debt Does Air China Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Air China had debt of CN¥144.9b, up from CN¥118.1b in one year. However, it also had CN¥22.2b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥122.7b.
How Strong Is Air China's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Air China had liabilities of CN¥112.9b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥187.9b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥22.2b as well as receivables valued at CN¥8.76b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥269.9b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥114.9b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Air China would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Air China can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
In the last year Air China wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 97%, to CN¥116b. With any luck the company will be able to grow its way to profitability.
Caveat Emptor
While we can certainly appreciate Air China's revenue growth, its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is not ideal. To be specific the EBIT loss came in at CN¥9.7b. When we look at that alongside the significant liabilities, we're not particularly confident about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. It's fair to say the loss of CN¥9.7b didn't encourage us either; we'd like to see a profit. And until that time we think this is a risky stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Air China , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
